why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Microsoft claims the AI boom has not altered its carbon negative goals
“AI doesn't change our sustainability goals. We're still buying CDR in pursuit of our carbon negative goal. And the AI hasn't really changed that target for us. It just increased the importance of a net zero world still needs to be possible in it, despite the A…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Enhanced rock weathering measurement remains too immature for long-term offtakes
“The quantification methods just aren't there yet. So this has been true for enhanced rock weathering for us to date. It's something we're working through right now. Like, is, do we feel good enough about the quantification methods of carbon removal through enh…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Janus: 2x more efficient AI chips will lead tech giants to deploy 2x more chips
“And, you know, I had someone ask me the other day, well, what happens if, you know, if NVIDIA comes out with a chip that's twice as efficient? And my response to that is, well, then Meta or Microsoft or Google will plug in twice as many chips. If they have the…”
Disclosure
Microsoft targets a 50-50 portfolio split for low and high-durability removals
“And so for 2030, for us to meet our goals and for us to build a high quality carbon removal market, we've been targeting for about half of the portfolio to be low durability and half to be medium and high.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's BTG Pactual transaction is the world's largest carbon removal deal
“BTG is a really exciting one. You know, this is the world's largest carbon removal deal out there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Direct air capture and marine CDR will not scale before 2030
“What is the next generation of direct air capture look like? What is the next generation of marine CDR look like? Those are pathways that aren't going to be so big on our 20 30 timescale, but really important in 2035 by 20 40.”
Disclosure
Microsoft pledges to remove data center diesel backup generators by 2030
“When we look out to 2030 we are committed to being carbon-free as a company, to removing diesel gensets from as a backup power source to our data centers, which by the way means we need a really, really, really reliable grid globally, like everywhere, and so w…”
Assertion Supported
Brose: Microsoft carbon removal project burned in Bootleg Fire
“And one of the projects that we purchased from in 2020 burned in the bootleg fire, and so that risk went from a theoretical number on a page, you know, two percent risk of reversal over the project lifetime to, well, it happened, and was that reversal risk the…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Brad Smith: Microsoft will remove all historical carbon emissions by 2050
“By 20 50, we will remove from the environment all of the carbon we have emitted directly or by electrical consumptions since our company's founding in 1975.”
Disclosure
Microsoft mandates strict biomass sourcing rules for bioenergy carbon removal feedstocks
“So one thing that we focused on quite a bit is ensuring we have a broad set of biomass sourcing principles that we worked on with Carbon Direct and is available on our website that identify, okay, we need to make sure that those sources of wood products are tr…”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's 2020 carbon removal goals exceeded the entire global market size
“We knew at that time that the market was only in the couple millions of tons annually, and Microsoft schools were several times greater than that, and so for there to be a vibrant market where Microsoft is only buying a share of it, the car removal market need…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Microsoft's 2023 Ørsted transaction immediately improved supplier application quality
“Once we were able to structure that deal and we announced that transaction in the start of 2023, it became this huge signal. All of a sudden there was a shift And the quality of applications and the depth of applications that we saw.”
Disclosure
Microsoft agrees to purchase 8 million tons of carbon from Chestnut Carbon
“We signed a deal to purchase, I believe, eight million tons of carbon removal from them over a period of time, and they know finance very well.”
Disclosure
Microsoft offers short-term contracts for early-stage carbon removal projects
“We vary our contracting in two big ways. So if the project's ready for scale, we will work through a long-term off-tick agreement that's modeled off a PPA. If the project is not ready for scale yet... We'll sign a shorter form agreement.”
Disclosure
Microsoft evaluates 250 carbon removal applications annually and considers 100 projects
“We see about 250 applications per year, and mostly from, it is probably from 200 plus suppliers, and we're seriously considering over a hundred projects right now in our pipeline.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BECCS offers the highest confidence for meaningful high-durability carbon removal volume
“And then in the high durability space, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage has been to the most, the highest confidence in that and the widest range of suppliers that can deliver meaningful volumes on the 20 30 timescale.”
Opinion
Tech giants back CDR to secure future low-cost capacity
“There are companies like Microsoft, Frontier, and others that are seeking to create a market and build a supplier base. I see those companies providing the leadership in the market. They're doing it for good reasons for themselves as well. Securing a first rig…”
Disclosure
Boston Metal cap table includes BHP, Vale, ArcelorMittal, Aramco, and Microsoft
“We have lots of giants in in our cup table today. So, you know, the largest mining company in the world, BHP, the largest supplier of iron ore, Vale from Brazil, the largest international steelmaking company, ArcelorMittal. Then you have Saudi Aramco, you have…”
Assertion Supported
BTG Pactual has raised over $500 million for its reforestation fund
“We're in a pay-go relationship with them where we'll buy the credits as they sell them to us, and they're, they've raised, you know, well over half of their billion dollar fund, and on the timber side, they're working with best-in-class FSE standards.”
Disclosure
Microsoft splits CDR procurement between 2030 scale and frontier technologies
“Our CDR The procurement strategy breaks down in sort of two general buckets. They're the pathways that we think can deliver scale by twenty-thirty, and in that case, I think it's more the example that you give, that you need to focus on the proven tech because…”
Disclosure
Microsoft builds carbon removal offtake agreements on standard power purchase frameworks
“Yeah, so the backbone of our offtake agreements is built on a power purchase agreement.”
Disclosure
Microsoft most commonly rejects carbon removal projects for being too early
“The most common way we say no to a project is because it's too early.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft contracted 2.7M tons of carbon removal from Ørsted over 11 years
“Microsoft made a deal with Orsted to purchase 2.7 million tons of carbon removal over an 11 year period from a bioenergy carbon capture and storage plant.”
Assertion Supported
Janus: Big tech hyperscalers grew from hundreds of megawatts to gigawatts by 2020
“Early in the two, you know, 2010 time frame, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, you know, they maybe all had a few hundred megawatts of data center capacity. Well, now you get to the end of that decade, now they're all sitting on a few gigawatts of capacity”
Assertion Supported
Leaked report: Microsoft manages 5GW of data centers, adding 2.5GW soon
“According to a leaked document from Business Insider, Microsoft is expanding data center capacity dramatically. It has five gigawatts under management, and it's planning 2.5 gigawatts of expansion in the next 12 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Janis: Microsoft had 100 to 200 MW data center capacity in 2011
“I think when I joined Microsoft in 2011, there was somewhere between a 102 hundred megawatts of data center capacity, which is not nothing, but compared to what it is today is pretty minuscule.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hamilton: Microsoft invested in Helion and signed a 2028 PPA
“Microsoft invested in Helion, a fusion company, and they have a twenty-twenty-eight PPA.”