The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 418 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kalanick: Benchmark ran an activist war room creating weekly crises at Uber
“Benchmark was running a war room. They were an unspoken activist investor that was creating a once a week crisis.”
Glyman: OpenAI and Anthropic will pass $300B combined revenue in a year
“And if you play out what they and OpenAI, just the two labs, are on track to do in revenue and call it a year's time I think it'd be reasonably conservative at this point to say they're gonna pass more than three hundred billion dollars a year in revenue, whic…”
Grady and Lin asked Leone back 30 days after taking over Sequoia
“It turned out the rule of step down, Pat and Alfred took over. They weren't the kings I chose, and 30 days into it, they came to my house, and they said, would you like to come back?”
Helsing: AI took full control of Gripen fighter jet in dogfight test
“Last year we flew a real fighter jet and we flew the Saab Gripen over the Baltic Sea. And when I say we, our AI did and took full control of the plane in air combat against and another Gripen, which was human controlled. And so we flew three air combat scenari…”
Reil: Manned fighter jets will struggle against superhuman autonomous swarms
“Crude manned, you know, fighter jets were going to be very difficult to deploy in the future because you'll, you'll end up Facing these swarms of autonomous fighter jets with superhuman capabilities, and it's not science fiction.”
Kalanick: Uber never passed anti-competitor regulations or donated to political campaigns
“We had never at Uber, we never
Got a regulation passed that would hurt a competitor.
We never would do that.
That's just not how we rolled.
We never donated to a campaign.
Ever.
To try to get something passed.”
Palmer Luckey was pushed out and fired from Facebook for supporting Trump
“This was when he was kind of persona non grata in tech and mainstream for supporting Trump and not supporting Hillary while he was at Facebook. So it was pretty soon after he was pushed out, fired for political beliefs at Facebook, which is kind of mind blowin…”
Ovitz: AI music platforms Suno and Udio construct songs using copyrighted IP
“We've seen it, what's going on with Suno and Udio, where they're taking IP that other people own, even 10 seconds of it, and Constructing custom-made songs.”
A Take-Two Competitor Once Faced 500 Sexual Harassment Claims
“So one of our competitors at one point had 500 sexual harassment claims at their company.”
White: Viacom Executive Philippe Dauman Threatened to Build a UFC Clone
“And then he tells us that he built the UFC, and if we don't like the offer he's making, he'll just build another one. That's literally what he said.”
Foroughi: AppLovin cut 40% of headcount while doubling revenue
“The business grew nearly a hundred percent year over year, and we fired about 40% of the team because I wanted to distill it down to these eight players.”
Spiegel: Studies prove Snapchat boosts well-being unlike Instagram and TikTok
“What's fascinating is when Snapchat is studied separately from social media, there's study after study, independent studies that show that Snapchat makes a positive impact on people's friendships, on their wellbeing, that is fundamentally Different from social…”
Andreessen: 2009 legacy VC firms were lone wolves who disliked each other
“All of the sort of legacy venture firms at that point, they were all like that. They were all just like tribes of lone wolves. And then the thing that we knew that was not publicly known was, generally speaking, inside the firms, they didn't even like each oth…”
Armstrong: Members of Congress told me Warren asked Gensler to curtail crypto
“My understanding, this is kind of what other people in the Congress told me, is that she asked Gary Gensler to go hard on crypto and like try to really curtail it in the United States.”
Armstrong: Around 300 Coinbase employees staged a walkout over BLM stance
“This erupted in Slack and basically 300 employees did a walkout. In protest.”
Armstrong voted against building USDC before it generated ~$800M in revenue
“There's actually been examples where I voted no on something and it turned out to be a massive success. And an example of that is like USDC, which is the stable coin. I actually, Embarrassed to admit, I voted no on that idea. Luckily, somebody else funded it o…”
Iovine: AI will never write a song like Dylan's 'Blowin' in the Wind'
“AI will never be able to write Blown in the Wind by Bob Dylan. Not in anyone who's listening to this, or in my lifetime, for sure.”
Staniszewski predicts conversational AI will deliver human-like dialogue within 12 months
“So, so I think 12 months from now, what will happen is, is similar as we are speaking. It's, I think the technology will be able to understand us at an incredibly better way, both our knowledge, both the emotional part of that conversation and deliver, deliver…”
Dell: US electricity demand CAGR will jump 5x to 10%
“Over the last 20 years, electricity demand has gone at roughly a two percent compounded annual growth grade, and, you know, we think it'll go to, you know, somewhere on the order of 10%, which is obviously a five hex, which on a base as large as energy is real…”
Dell: Next 50 years of energy defined by solar, batteries, and software
“We think that there's a generational kind of paradigm shift happening in the energy industry, where the last five decades of energy were defined by coal and then Natural gas as the marginal megawatt. And the next five decades will be defined by solar batteries…”
Dell: AI will soon be the world's largest consumer of electricity
“And it's now the fastest growing and soon going to be the largest consumer of electricity in the world. And its name is AI.”
Leone saw a startup with no product try to raise at $10B
“I came back from vacation over the weekend. I saw a memo. I won't tell you the name of a startup company that wants to raise money without anything at ten billion pre.”
Sequoia's investment in SpaceX has a shot at a $20B gain
“Yeah, it's SpaceX. Now, we haven't cashed out yet or whatever, but, you know, there's a shot of a twenty billion dollar gain or more, and so he ruined it for all of us.”
Leone hasn't lost a deal to a competitor in 30 years except on price
“You know, I really haven't lost an investment in 30 years in Silicon Valley. People have beaten me because of price, but I haven't lost otherwise.”
Reil: Future warfare will be autonomous machine battles where humans cannot survive
“I think it's going to be a battle of materiel. It's machines versus machines. The reason for this is that the autonomous mass, as we call it, so the number of drones that can fly in a coordinated way is getting better and better, and it's going to be very hard…”
Reil: Sending humans into battle will become unethical, forcing ground robot adoption
“And at the same time, if you want to have humans on the battlefield, I think it's going to be very difficult. And I think the trend is going to be, and I think people are realizing this, is that it's going to be unethical to send humans on a battlefield where …”
Reil: Banks grouped defense in the same bucket as porn and gambling
“Back then the defense of a country or of a democratic society was grouped for banks in the same bucket as pornography and gambling and smoking.”
Altman: Better AI will strengthen non-tech businesses offering authentic experiences
“The better AI gets, the more some businesses that have nothing to do with AI, I think will be harder to compete with because we'll really want these like authentic non-technological experiences, or we'll care more about Sports teams or whatever. So no, not, no…”
Altman: AI compute is becoming the most expensive infrastructure project ever
“Finance what is probably already, or at least rapidly becoming the most expensive infrastructure project in history.”
Altman: OpenAI faced widespread intellectual criticism over AGI and LLM focus
“I mean, we just got, you know, hammered in the, by like all of the intellectual giants of the field for saying that we were going after AGI. And then when we started really focusing on large language models, we got hammered again saying this is completely ridi…”
Altman: AI scientific discovery will be more important than task automation
“Like, I think this is, I think this will be one of the most important areas, even more important than automation of other tasks that AI can do just to help us understand more things.”
Altman: AI is currently solving novel math problems and making discoveries
“We're finally at the moment where AI is solving novel math problems. It is discovering other stuff. It is, you know, you can argue about how good or not, I would say not very good, but it is writing poetry.”
Altman: Superintelligence will not fundamentally alter human social wiring
“This is why I think, like, the world is, on the whole, not going to be that different. Even with superintelligence, like, people are still going to be very fundamentally wired to care about other people, to want to be around other people to interact with other…”
Altman: AI will drive the greatest small-business creation boom in history
“And we are about to see the greatest boom in people starting smaller businesses that we have ever seen. I think AI is empowering that.”
Altman: OpenAI Will Be Best Across the Entire Cost-Performance Curve
“At every point on the cost curve, cost performance curve, we will be the best.”
Kalanick: Post-departure NYC regulations turned Uber into an expensive taxi system
“And if people are taking Ubers today in New York and wondering why it's so expensive, And why it's getting more unreliable. It's because after I left Uber, they started passing a bunch of laws that are turning Uber into the taxi system. They've, they have a li…”
Kalanick: Chinese sovereign funds poured billions into global rivals to drain Uber
“And what happened is the sovereign wealth their sovereign wealth funds in China started pouring billions of dollars into my competitors, Uber's competitors in different regions, so that they would subsidize in those regions and drain my resources.”
Kalanick: Automating a gold mine increases annual output by 20%
“Because we can go to a gold mine right now, go to a gold mine CEO and ask whether he wants 20% more gold per year. Why? Because when you automate it, that's the output.”
Malka: AI will connect to money via blockchain smart contracts
“I think it's going to be that intersection between probably what blockchains will do and AI will do, because you will need to have intelligent smart contracts that will do stuff on your behalf”
Malka: Founder-led fintechs like Stripe and Nubank will win AI race
“I think it comes from them. Because first, they're still founder-led, or Revolut, also. They're still founder-led. Those founders are pushing the boundaries of all of this. They are at an age, and they are at a place, and if you talk to them, they're still as …”
DHH: AI Acceleration Likely to Cause Even Lean Teams to Overbuild
“So this is why I'm quite skeptical about all this new AI acceleration we're having is even us. I think it's quite likely that we could use it wrong to build too much software to get too far away from less software, learnable software that still has to fit in t…”
DHH: 2004 Basecamp version still generates millions in annual profit
“The version we launched in 2004, we stopped selling in 2010. 16 years ago. We still have customers on it. As an individual business, it's still making millions of dollars.”
DHH: Twenty out of sixty employees resigned after 2021 workplace politics ban
“We're a small company, 60 people so at the time, 20 took the offer. 20 left. Like, that's almost a third of the company that decided to leave in that moment”
DHH: Marc Andreessen sent a Frankfurt School syllabus during 37signals' 2021 crisis
“And what Margaret also did was he gave me a syllabus for understanding the history of wokeness, going all the way back to the sixties and beyond, that this didn't just come as lightning from a blue sky. This had an institutional grounding that was set in motio…”
Glyman: Ramp Was First to Unify Corporate Cards and Expense Systems
“It's part of why we're the first in the industry to go look at expenses and say, like, why are there two systems involved in buying every single thing you do?”
Glyman: AI tooling will reduce functional sub-specialization in companies
“In a world where, you know, someone who develops the product can use technologies that helps them sell more effectively, that helps them track That helps them track outreach, that helps them write with a better pitch on the first go, and these are real tools t…”
Ross: Marginal cost of software code is approaching zero
“What I'm seeing is that code is becoming almost free. It's, it, the marginal cost is approaching zero.”
Scott Wu predicts humans will soon stop interacting directly with code
“We're not always, I mean, we're not gonna be interacting with code for that much longer, you know, or programs might not be the right, like level of abstraction, but I think what is always true probably is that it will be the human computer interface.”