The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mansour: Kalshi's top inflation forecaster was an amateur from Kansas
“The best inflation forecaster on CalSphere over the last few years is not, none of the institutions or the, you know, the big name hedge funds, it's this guy who lives in Kansas, never traded financial markets before, just likes to read the news, and just know…”
Mansour: Gambling houses profit from losses, exchanges profit from transparency
“Gambling is this idea where the business model is, you are the house, and your revenue is your customer's losses. Like, so, and a lot of the dynamic that you describe has to be true, because your incentive is like, well, somebody's making money, I gotta stop t…”
Mansour: Prediction markets are required to accurately price complex traditional assets
“And if those dimensions, you don't have a good understanding of x one to x n you cannot get a good estimate of y, right? And so you, the paper basically says that you need infinite markets. And prediction markets are this notion of infinite markets, which is l…”
Mansour: Prediction markets are an antidote to social media polarization
“I think that we do see this a lot with also, well, there's sort of the piece where people use it and that sort of react in real time to certain things, but I think there's some degree of depolarization. And that's what Luana is alluding to. Like, and in some w…”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Mansour: Banning prediction markets heightens risks by driving trading offshore
“Because if you ban it,
You're actually heightening the risks that you're trying to prevent, because now that activity is going offshore, right?
Like, and where you cannot monitor it or police it or do anything to protect it.”
Mansour: Suing your primary regulator rarely works and usually kills startups
“So, so rarely does it work, and even if you win, you will probably lose. Like, you will end up getting killed in the process.”
Mansour: Kalshi is talking to AI labs to build future-prediction benchmarks
“We launched Calci Research recently, which And one of the threads that we want to work on is we're talking to some of the research labs to create a new benchmark around which models actually predict the future better.”
Mansour: Prediction markets attract users because culture is more engaging than earnings
“The interesting point, I think, and I think this is part of why prediction markets are being adopted so, so, so much is people like this idea that if like your edge is proportional to your research, how informed you are, how much time and energy you put into t…”
Mansour: Political candidates are using prediction market prices for campaign decisions
“Well, the candidates are using the, like, are using the prediction market prices to inform.”
Mansour: Balancing tail-risk paranoia with founder optimism drives great outcomes
“If you're a trader, you're like an expected value calculator. Like, I think about these sort of tail really bad outcomes all the time, and Luana oftentimes doesn't, and I think this is the thing that actually leads to great outcomes.”
Mansour: Kalshi Direct has dramatically outpaced broker channel growth
“The direct, what we call direct Cauchy Direct, which is our Cauchy.com, Cauchy app, the consumer business, that has grown, you know that has sort of dramatically outpaced the rest, Or other the sort of intermediated or broker business.”