The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mainstream adoption of fully enclosed VR headsets is unrealistic
“VR may have a specialized role, you know, for more immersive training environments or things like that. Yeah, but even then, I think folks really are going to want to be able to wear glasses and work together, right? I mean, you're going to want to be able to …”
Mass adoption of pass-through VR headsets clashes with human nature
“That's, you know, pass through VR where they reproject the world on the screen, but I can't imagine A huge swath of humanity wanting to interact with the world through a screen. I just, I don't think that's a fit for who we are as a species.”
Camera-only smart glasses will quickly get undercut on price
“The problem with camera glasses, if you're really successful, right, you really won't have been able to build a platform because they're not, they don't have an operating system, they don't understand the world, they don't run applications, and therefore you'r…”
AI software generation overcomes the Apple App Store lock-in moat
“So I think you know, I think the entire engineering paradigm, the way that software is built now enables you know, a totally different way of thinking about specs and about our platform. And frankly, overcomes the biggest hurdle that we were facing, which was …”
Independent studies show Snapchat boosts well-being, unlike TikTok or Instagram
“And I think what's so fascinating, I think now there's been maybe three or more of them, one out of Australia, I think one out of the Netherlands or something, one in the U.S., that show that Snapchat actually has a positive impact on people's well-being and r…”
Upcoming Spectacles will match Apple Vision Pro capabilities in glasses form
“And I think the sweet spot for specs coming later this year is the wearability of, you know, normal glasses, but the capability of you know, true spatial computer, like something like a Vision Pro.”
Rapidly created bespoke AI software will replace one-size-fits-all applications
“And so where, where I think we're at in 20, 26, which is fundamentally really different, Is that, you know, there's literally going to be bespoke software for people that they're going to be able to imagine that they're going to be able to build and create rea…”
Combining social connections with media feeds creates perverse platform incentives
“The most important thing you need to do is separate social from media. The biggest mistake was combining them, and it creates a lot of perverse incentives.”
Future social networking will mean hanging out in person using AR glasses
“This social network of the future is actually hanging out together in person and using specs together. So that's what excites me about the future of digital communication. I think, you know, messaging is fine, but it's hard to compete with actually being toget…”
Companies will shift resources from engineering to distribution to accelerate growth
“People are going to reallocate more resources away from things like software engineering, for example, to distribution in order to grow faster.”
Snap is about to reach one billion monthly active users
“We're about to reach a billion monthly active users, which is a big deal for us.”
Snap is on the verge of net income profitability
“We're also on the verge of net income profitability, which is really exciting for us, especially as we invest really meaningfully in hardware and our specs glasses effort.”
Snap will launch Spectacles to consumers later this year
“Which is that specs are coming to consumers for the first time later this year. So after 12 years of investment in glasses and the next generation of computing and trying to make computing more human, it's actually coming.”
Large screen use cases will move to AR smart glasses first
“What I actually would estimate is that a lot of the large screen use cases are the first to move, right? So if you think about what's so interesting about specs, you can have a huge TV, right, with you almost anywhere. A giant screen with you almost anywhere. …”
The paradigm of manually operating computers all day is ending
“Like, I do think the paradigm that we all have to operate our computers all day long is going away, and I think that's hugely positive.”
Android is too bloated to work effectively on smart glasses
“Android is way too bloated to work effectively on a pair of glasses.”
Consumers will not realistically carry compute packs for AR glasses
“We just don't think it's realistic for, you know people to carry around a compute pack to use glasses.”
Over two-thirds of new code at Snap is written by AI
“Now more than two-thirds of, you know, new code is written You know, by AI at Snap.”
Snapchat primarily competes with messaging services, not entertainment networks
“I think our competitors are primarily messaging services. So I think that's, you know, the core of the service is messaging. When we launched Snapchat, it had no social features beyond messaging. I mean, that's always driven the growth of the service.”
Over one trillion selfies are captured on Snapchat annually
“Over a trillion selfies have been captured on Snapchat, right? And so I think when you know, in, in the, over the same period, and so when you.”
Platform value comes from close contacts, not total network size
“What Snapchat proved was actually that it's not about the size of your network or the number of people you can contact on your network, it's about who you actually talk to. And that tends to be a much smaller group than the total size of the Potential network,…”
OS-level parental controls are more effective than government app bans
“All of these settings are available to parents at the operating system level, which is a much more resilient way to implement this sort of policy. So I think a lot of the noise in the ecosystem today and a lot of the concern obfuscates the fact that, like, the…”
Evan Spiegel fought hard for years to kill Snapchat streaks
“Streaks are one. Like, I did not like the idea of streaks, did not want to do it. I actually fought very hard to Killstreaks over the years. We've always been anti-metric at Snap.”
Snap builds the most sensitive Spectacles components in the US and UK
“We build,
You know, some of the most important components for specs in the U S and in the UK. So we've really thought about building some of the most IP sensitive components, some of the most sophisticated components in the U S and the UK, where we can sit th…”
Protecting hardware innovations is much easier than software in the AI era
“That is one thing I love about hardware. It's way easier to protect our innovations and our ideas compared to software, especially today in the age of AI.”
Smartphones isolate users instead of connecting them in the real world
“And I think phones have continued that trend of pulling people into the screen rather than bringing people into the world, helping people share experiences together with their friends.”
Snapchat+ has reached 25 million subscribers and a $1 billion run rate
“We just announced we had twenty-five million Snapchat plus subscribers, over a billion run rate on the direct revenue business.”
Digital communication will default to ephemerality, saving only what matters
“I think, like, my general thesis would be that it will probably mirror the way that we've been living for thousands of years, which is the vast majority of life is ephemeral, and then you save the things that are important, right?”