The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 357 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Xu: Eating out in China is as affordable as cooking at home
“Eating out in China is about as affordable as cooking, you know, at home.”
Xu: Dozens of Chinese cities match or exceed Manhattan's population density
“In China there are many dozens of cities over a million in population, and the population density is even perhaps higher than that of Manhattan.”
Xu: US restaurant count grew nearly every year for 60 years
“If you looked in, in, in America, in the last 60 years, I think there's only a couple years where the number of restaurants in the current year Didn't exceed that in the previous year.”
Tony Xu: Restaurant permitting has gotten largely worse on average across the US
“I think in general, kind of similar to building things, they've gotten largely worse on average, right?”
Xu: Retail in Europe is far more concentrated than in the US
“Yeah, in the U.K., in Germany, in France, in a lot of European countries actually, this is more the norm than the exception, whereas in the U.S. You have, you know, maybe hundreds of different big brands that, that, that, that are strong in certain regions, bu…”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs applied transformer and diffusion concepts to voice
“And here credit to my co-founder, Piotr, who effectively came with that new idea of how you can now create voice models, which are both reliable, high quality, quick, where you would bring a lot of the ideas from transformer models, from diffusion models into …”
Staniszewski says ElevenLabs speech-to-text models beat industry benchmarks across 100 languages
“Speech to text models that work over a hundred languages and happily beat others on benchmarks all the way through to conversational models of how you loop them together to music, to other domains of audio.”
Staniszewski says voice lead forms capture richer customer data than text
“One, people were actually much more keen to leave the forms through speaking with the agent, so we would go through the form a lot easier. But second, they would be a lot more open-ended in terms of what the use case are. So they would start giving us informat…”
Staniszewski says leading voice models use under twenty billion parameters
“A few billion to low tens of billion parameter models.”
Staniszewski: Over 50% of ElevenLabs revenue is sales-led enterprise
“We are over 50% is now sales-led enterprise.”
Pichai: Google improved Search latency by 30% over five years
“You know, last I checked the dashboards and the metrics, we've actually improved search latency by 30% in the last five years, but think about the functionality progression that's happened.”
Pichai: Gemini has state-of-the-art spatial reasoning models for robotics
“The Gemini robotics models are sort of on spatial reasoning, et cetera, so we definitely have state of the art models there.”
Cacioppo: Vanta's annual growth rate exceeds 60%
“Our growth rate's actually quickened the last couple of years and quarters and months, and so it bends up 60% annual plus for the last couple of years since that milestone.”
Cacioppo: SOC 2 and ISO 27001 overlap by roughly 60% to 65%
“I think our fish like mapping is like sixty-ish, 65%.”
Cacioppo: Companies can legally self-declare HIPAA compliance
“There's HIPAA, which is U.S. Law. You can just declare yourself compliant with HIPAA. Like, you get to decide.”
Cacioppo: Enterprise demand for CCPA and US privacy compliance is down
“We see, like, demand for, say, CCPA, which is a California private, like, California version of GDPR, quote unquote, go in waves, and right now it is definitely, I mean, all the American, you know, regulation is, is kind of at a, I don't know, total nadir, but…”
Cacioppo: GitHub answers 92% of security questionnaires through Vanta
“GitHub gets 92% of all of the questionnaires they receive answered through Vanta.”
Cacioppo: Vanta sold 34 extra subscriptions from a $60K podcast ad
“He came to me and was like, I want to spend 60,000 dollars on this ad, and my deal with him was like, fine, but you got to sell four more Vantas, because the Vanta basically cost 15,000 dollars, and the next month he sold like 34 more Vantas because of the pod…”
Cacioppo: The startup SOC 2 market in 2018 was zero dollars
“The market for startups getting SOC II in 2018 was zero dollars. Truly zero.”
Dolgov: Waymo vehicles rely on cameras, lidars, and radars for 360-degree vision
“We use three different sensing modalities. There's cameras, there's lighters or lasers, and there are radars. You know, those are the primary ones. There are, you know, also microphones, directional, you know, microphone arrays, but those are the primary three…”
Dolgov: Waymo requires zero real-time cloud connectivity for driving inference
“Nothing real-time in the cloud, and there are some things that can happen, you know, in the cloud, But they're not required.”
Huang: Tech companies suing regulators is more common than conventional wisdom suggests
“Coinbase has sued their primary regulator and GovTech, SpaceX, Andrew Palantir all had to sue for various reasons. So it seems like it's actually more common than Silicon Valley conventional wisdom.”
Lopes Lara: Upfront collateral requirements impair prediction market making
“The third one is really margining systems. Right now it's very bad. You have to put all the money up front. Right. Which makes a lot of, for example, will a hurricane happen this year? Very, very bad for you to be actually like market making or selling those c…”
Collison: Sportsbooks take ~10% whereas prediction markets take ~1%
“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”
Mansour: Political candidates are using prediction market prices for campaign decisions
“Well, the candidates are using the, like, are using the prediction market prices to inform.”
Collison: Mainstream AI chat interfaces still lack persistent memory in 2026
“Still in twenty-twenty-six, if you open a new Gemini chat, or if you open a new ChatGPG chat, it's basically a blank slate. There's no memory.”
Langley: Flock Safety stores all system audit logs forever and publicly
“Every single action in our system, the audit is stored in perpetuity, and it's publicly available.”
Langley: Flock Safety drone system costs less than one police officer
“Like in the incremental cost is less than the cost of one single officer.”
Langley: Police helicopters increasingly disable ADS-B to evade criminal tracking
“We're seeing more and more police helicopters have to turn off ADS-B as well. Because like criminals have the same data that you have. And so most of the police officers actually fly without ADS, you know, which is like a whole challenge.”
Langley: Most Crimes Solved by Flock Safety Are Non-Violent
“The majority of the crime we solve is not violent.
It's non-violent.”
Pope: Almost every senior AI researcher passed through Google Brain
“Pretty much anyone who's maybe, I don't know, over 30 and at a large lab has been at Google Brain at some point.”
Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite reaches $500M run rate
“Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite, with billing at its core, has now passed a five hundred million dollar revenue run rate.”
Half of Fortune 100 and one-sixth of new Delaware corporations use Stripe
“From top corporate leaders, half of the Fortune 100 uses Stripe. To hyper-growth companies, we count 80% of the Forbes Cloud 178% of the Forbes AI-fifty as customers. To newly formed upstarts, one in six new Delaware corporations incorporates with Stripe Atlas…”
Stripe-processed revenue is growing seven times faster than S&P 500
“In aggregate, the revenue that businesses process on Stripe is growing seven times faster than that of all companies in the S&P 500.”
Collison: Cursor reached over $100M ARR in just three years
“Cursor, the AI-powered coding assistant, raced to over one hundred million dollars in recurring revenue in just three years.”
Collison: Lovable hit $17M ARR in 3 months, Bolt $20M ARR in 2 months
“We're also seeing the likes of Lovable, which hit seventeen million dollars ARR in just three months, Bolt, achieving twenty million ARR in two months, and Kodo, radically lower the barrier for turning software ideas into working applications.”
Collison: 60% of US small businesses use vertical SaaS platforms
“Today, 60% of all small businesses in America use vertical SaaS platforms to help run their business.”
Collison: Stripe has seen over 92% of processed credit cards before
“When a credit card is used for a payment, there is a greater than 92% chance that Stripe has encountered the same card before.”
Collison: SpaceX uses Bridge for Starlink fund repatriation in emerging markets
“SpaceX uses Bridge to repatriate funds from Starlink sales in Argentina, Nigeria, and other markets.”
Collison: Stablecoin volumes doubled year-over-year as active wallets hit 40M
“Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled between Q four, 20, 23 and Q four, 20, 24. And the number of monthly active stablecoin wallets has now reached forty million.”
Collison: An estimated 99% of stablecoin balances are USD-based
“We further note with interest that despite regulatory uncertainty in the United States, early stablecoin adoption has shown a notable US dollar preference, with an estimated 99% of stablecoin balances being USD-based.”
Collison: US productivity reached $104/hr versus $85/hr in Europe
“While the economies of the US and Europe were similarly productive in 1990, there has since been a stark divergence, with US productivity per hour works reaching 104 dollars, as compared with a plateau of something closer to 85 dollars per hour in Europe.”
Collison: Stripe powers over 5M businesses, 90% of Dow Jones
“Our programmable financial services now power more than five million businesses directly or via platforms, including all the top AI companies, many of the largest blue chip companies, 90% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most of the biggest tech companies,…”
Collison: 25% of Delaware corporations are formed via Stripe Atlas
“25% of all Delaware corporations are now created with Stripe Atlas.”