The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 483 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 26 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Glyman: Majority of Ramp's 55,000+ Customers Have Adopted AI
“And we looked at our data and you know, we support over 55,000 businesses. We lean a little bit towards tech, but not heavily. It kind of resembles the distribution of businesses you would see in the States. And well the majority of businesses have used Used A…”
Glyman: All modern fintech heads of risk came from Capital One
“Our head of risk Sri Srinivasan, he's amazing came from capital, we're the same boss 10 years apart, actually in, in some sense, and all the heads of risk for all modern fintechs that are, came from Capital One.”
Ben Thompson: The tech industry faces a massive chip shortage around 2029
“I think we're looking at a massive short, shortness in chips in 20, 29 or so.”
Ben Thompson: Crypto will become increasingly important for digital authenticity
“And in that world, I think crypto as an identifier of Authenticity is going to be more and more important. Like at the end of the day, I want the original. I don't want a reproduction.”
Depledge: Top-Quartile UK VCs Match US Returns at 23%
“VC firms, top quartile VC firms in the UK return 23%, right? It's exactly the same as the US.”
DeWahl: 100% 24/7 solar and battery storage costs rival nuclear
“Actually to get true hundred percent, 24 seven coverage, the battery or the excess build out is massive. It is really expensive. It's on, it's like basically on par with nuclear costs.”
Nadella: AI agents will create their own RL environments
“Right now, for the RL loop, they are simulating our production environment, but they will ultimately be more efficient in creating their own production environments to kind of RL themselves.”
Nadella: Next IDE will be born in autonomous PR triage
“One of the things that we are experimenting with this mission control in GitHub Copilot is that, right, which is, well, the idea is you go have five, six different branches in which you fire off all these autonomous agents, they all do their work, they come ba…”
Nadella: Future companies will have their own proprietary foundation models
“The future of a company is that company has its own foundation model that captures essentially the tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs of how knowledge gets accrued and diffused inside the organization faster.”
Nadella: The future of AI agents is ensembles with intelligent routing
“That ultimately is where, you know, the future of agents would be, right? And so therefore you want the model. In fact, you want an ensemble. Of models that then, you know, you have agents intermediating that ensemble so that it meets your needs.”
Ricks: Machine-designed drugs haven't reached clinical trials yet, but are coming
“I don't know of one that's come through the machine driven discovery process, which is really machine plus human that's made it to the clinic yet, but they're coming.”
Ricks: Cardiovascular trial rules added five years to diabetes drug development
“The Evandia one, we know well, we work in diabetes, actually caused a policy change, and the policy change was you must rule out cardiovascular risk prior to market entry, and as you may know some conditions like diabetes have a more continuous variable you're…”
Ricks: ICER found tirzepatide and semaglutide cost-effective at current pricing
“They just analyzed our medicines, trisepatide and semaglutide, and they said, actually, they're both cost effective at current pricing. In fact, Zepbound or Trisepatide was, the threshold they have is to save a 100,000 dollars per person per year in downstream…”
Ricks: Medicine accounts for only 10 cents of every US healthcare dollar
“In the US, the most expensive healthcare system in the world, we spend 10 cents on the dollar on medicine. The other 90 cents go through everything else that medicine's trying to prevent.”
Ricks: Lilly's net insulin price stayed near $30 despite $275 list price
“Our actual net on insulin really hasn't changed. It's like 30 or 40 dollars, but the list price got up to two 75.”
Ricks: Early-stage biotechs pitch 80% to 100% of revenue from the US
“If you fund, if you went out and said, hey, I want to back some biotechs, and they sent you their business plan, 80 to a hundred percent of the revenue in return they'll pitch you on is the US. Meaning there is no return outside the US if you start at the poin…”
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Ricks: Taltz plus Zepbound trial is certain to boost psoriasis efficacy
“So we're doing a study with our psoriasis drug, Taltz, and ZepBound. That will read out this fall. And I'm certain we'll show a boost in efficacy with the weight loss.”
Abrams: US dollar stablecoins will maintain outsized dominance forever
“I think you're going to see while like, you know, fiat US dollars are x percent of the global market, stablecoin US dollars are going to be, you know, way more forever.”
Trading will shrink to 5% of the stablecoin market, Abrams predicts
“That being said, I think that the trading use, use case was like a hundred percent of the market two years ago was 80% of the market today, and, you know, will be five percent of the market in, in some number of years.”
All corporate treasuries will ultimately move into stablecoins, Abrams predicts
“So I think that ultimately all like corporate treasuries will move into stablecoins.”
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
Handmer predicts Hyperloop will never happen
“Is Hyperloop ever gonna happen?
[79] Casey Handmer: No.
[80] Casey Handmer: I think I can safely say that now.”
Synthetic fuel production is 100 times more land-efficient than biological photosynthesis
“Plants are great. Even this plastic one here but their net throughput efficiency is about a hundred times lower than a synthetic process like the one we're using in terms of like, Area of land into reduced carbon fuel.”
Long-range aviation, shipping, and chemicals will remain hydrocarbon-based for decades
“Fast aircraft, big aircraft, long, long range aircraft, hydrocarbons. Probably long range shipping would stay that way. Like LNG, it's just so cheap. It's gonna stay that way for a long time. Paints are gonna stay hydrocarbon based. Chemicals, pesticides, herb…”
AI data centers will inevitably scale on solar and batteries, not nuclear
“It seems pretty clear to me, I think two years ago, I've got a blog post on this saying that, like, we're going to have to go to solar and batteries for AI data centers at scale and back then everyone was still talking about, like, oh, we're going to build SMR…”
Handmer: Solar panel manufacturing costs will fall to four cents a watt
“They could probably see line of sight to, like, another two extra action in cost. So we go from eight cents a watt down to four cents a watt.”
The laws of physics allow solar panels to become 10 times cheaper
“The limit of physics on how cheap a solar panel can be is, like, at least 10 times cheaper than it currently is.”
China's electrification will end its dependence on Strait of Malacca oil
“Do you think by 2035 China is still going to be as dependent on oil through the Strait of Malacca? I don't. At the rate that they're deploying right now, they could cut off that supply if they needed to.”
SpaceX controls approximately 95% of the global space launch market
“In the space sector, at least, it's quite astounding the extent to which SpaceX is dominant. Right. This is not the case that, like, Apple has, what, 2030, 40% market share in smartphones, and Pixel has 10%, and Huawei and so on has a, this is like, SpaceX has…”
US car seat mandates save 58 lives but avert 10,000 births annually
“Something like 58 children's lives are saved in the United States every year by statistically by car seats, and something like 10,000 births are averted by families who cannot afford to upgrade their cars”
Handmer: AI Wealth Unlikely to Relieve Aging Populations Globally
“So it is certainly the case that AI seems likely to produce enormous additional wealth. Whether that wealth will find its way to alleviating the tax burden on the working class in, you know, the 200 countries on earth that don't have their own AI industry, see…”
Spending $20 billion on desalination could double the Colorado River flow
“If you spent twenty billion dollars on desalination, you could literally double the flow of the Colorado. So why? Five million acre feet.”
Sundheim: Hiring lateral portfolio managers from other funds almost never succeeds
“If I hire somebody laterally, who's a portfolio manager in another fund, that's rarely been successful, almost, almost never.”
Sundheim: Gas turbines will face shortages for a very long time
“I think that gas turbines are going to be in shortage for a very long time.”
Sundheim: US electricity demand will grow 4% annually over 20 years
“Electricity demand in the United States grew at zero percent for the last 20 years. And so, if you think about the next 20 years, I think electricity demand will grow at four percent.”
Sundheim: GE Vernova trades at 2x Siemens Energy's enterprise value
“G Renova trades at two x the enterprise value of Siemens energy, just to give you a sense of like, and ultimately, there's no reason why the margin should be higher at G Renova. The revenue base is the same.”
Sundheim: AI market correction will hit when training returns asymptote
“At some point, they're going to say like, well, we're asymptoting out, like the returns on this new investment are actually not working. That's when I think you'll see a pretty big correction.”
Sundheim: SpaceX will capture more global telecom market than expected
“And I think that will continue in a way that probably surprises people, in that like, I think SpaceX will probably capture more of the global,
Telecommunications market than people expect.”
SpaceX can triple in value without relying on speculative new use cases
“Like, I look at it and say, like, I think the business can triple
Without having to make any big bets about people traveling 30 minutes across the world or, you know, data centers in space.”
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Scaringe: Hands-Free and Eyes-Off Driving Will Be Expected Within Five Years
“Or in this, the next five years, we're going to see autonomy features where the idea of like hands-free or hands-free eyes off go from being something that a very small percentage of customers are looking for or using to something that's essentially expected.”
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Scaringe: Automakers without software-defined architectures will lose market share
“That must come, and if it doesn't, sort of like if manufacturers don't make that change, they're just going to lose market share, and the ones that do have that technology are going to gain a lot of market share in the next 10 years.”
Scaringe: Rivian steady-state vehicle sales will achieve 20% to 25% gross margin
“Vehicle sales, let's say that comfortably sitting it when we get to the right steady state, the 20 to 25% gross margin.”
Scaringe: Chinese EV Cost Advantage Stems from Government-Subsidized Capital
“What's driven the cost down is that you have the compounding benefits of much lower cost of capital across not just this, the manufacturer, the vehicle manufacturer, but across their whole supply chain. So tier one, tier two, tier three, everyone's cost of cap…”