The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 357 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Xu: DoorDash cut COVID commissions 50%, costing over $100M
“Or in COVID, we were the only company to cut commissions by 50%. When we were not yet profitable as a company, that was an expense over a hundred million dollars.”
Xu: US food spend flipped from 80% groceries to 60% dining out
“It used to be that in the, you know, these are rough numbers, but in the 19 fifties when the government was measuring this, we would spend in this country, in America, maybe 75 to 80 cents on the dollar on groceries versus restaurants. In present day, you know…”
Xu: DoorDash's alert system warned NYPD of a Manhattan shooting first
“Within minutes of a Dasher seeing the shooter walk in to the building, you know, we have an alert system that doesn't just alert all Dasher's and consumers and merchants within that vicinity, but also all local law enforcement. And actually we were the first t…”
Staniszewski: Accents and emotion are emergent properties in ElevenLabs models
“And in our approach, effectively, you would give the model open-ended ability to select what those parameters should be. So it's not going to be British, Polish, Spanish, English speaker but the model will deduce them themselves. The same for other set of para…”
ElevenLabs expressive mode lets voice agents detect and match human emotions
“So today, finally, you can have both speed generation or entire voice agent experience With what we call expressive mode where the agent knows the emotions on the other side. So if the person is stressed, it can react and be reassuring and that's generating a …”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs added $100M net new ARR in one quarter
“This quarter was kind of one of the best for enterprise growth, where we had the first quarter hit a hundred million in an additional ARR growth, which is crazy.”
Pichai: BERT and MUM drove Google Search's largest quality leaps
“BERT and MUM, people underestimate how much, because we measure search quality so religiously, some of the biggest jumps in search quality in that period where search went ahead of everyone else was because of BERT and MUM. We built transformers and used it im…”
Pichai: Gemini Flash models reach 90% of Gemini Pro capability
“The flash models are at like 90% the capability of the pro models but much faster much more effective to serve and the vertical integration helps and so on.”
Pichai: Google scaled capital expenditures from $30 billion to $180 billion
“Look, I think, you know, we probably have scaled our capex from thirty billion to a hundred and approximately a hundred and eighty billion.”
Cacioppo: Outbound phone calls are currently working for sales
“Outbound phone calls are currently working.”
Dolgov: Waymo LiDAR bounced under bus to detect occluded pedestrian
“What actually turned out was happening is that our peripheral lighters bounce under the bus, and there was just a little bit of very, very noisy reflection of the movement of the person's feet. That was enough for the AI models that, hey, I likely there's a pe…”
Waymo runs 3,000 cars delivering 500k rides and 4M miles weekly
“We have about 3000 cars on the roads. We're doing about half a million rides per week. It, that translates to about, you know, over four million fully autonomous miles per week. We are operating in a fully autonomous mode in 11 cities in the US and 10 of those…”
Lopes Lara: CFTC blocked Kalshi election markets for two years
“Not, well, the biggest they said no to was the elections. That's why we had to end up suing them. They said no for two years.”
Lopes Lara: 80% of Kalshi users only consume information without trading
“Most of our users, like, 80% of our users are actually just looking, like, consuming information. They're just coming in and seeing who's gonna win the Texas primary yesterday, and seeing, like, okay, the, this, the polls are saying they're tied, but they're n…”
Mansour: Kalshi logged $10.4B in trading volume in February
“So, so volume in February was 10.4 billion.”
Lopes Lara: Kalshi fined two insider traders 5x their total profits
“And we put out two cases of two weeks ago of two insiders that then because we're also regulated, we're able to charge them a lot of fines. We charge them over five times what they made and all those things they banned and all that.”
Taylor: Sierra AI agents are calling each other in English over PSTN
“So, we have payers with AI agents that pick up the phone. And we have providers that have AI agents that pick up the phone and make phone calls. We have revenue cycle management companies that work to make outbound calls to do it. We've already had- ... We've …”
Taylor: Ramp automates 90% of its customer support cases using Sierra
“Well, they're automating 90% of their cases.”
Langley: Major City Police Deprioritize Crimes Where No One Is Hurt
“So for most major cities, if a human is not physically hurt, the crime goes just to the bottom of the list.”
Langley: Stolen vehicles take 24 hours to reach the FBI database
“They will immediately put it in the Bay Area Flock hotlist immediately. It will take 24 hours to make it to the FBI hotlist. And that's a, you know, CSV file that gets sent around on FTP servers across the US.”
Langley: Federal law prevents police from shooting down criminal drones
“And then legally, even to today, law enforcement is not allowed to engage that drone. They can't take it down. It's FAA airspace. It's not law enforcement airspace.”
Langley: Oakland crime rose when San Francisco started adopting Flock Safety
“It's like when San Francisco started adopting Flock, Oakland crime went up. So then Oakland needed to adopt Flock.”
Langley: Lowe's retail shrink dropped an order of magnitude with Flock
“But like, you look at some of our partners like a Lowe's, you know, their shrink has gone down order of magnitude. It's not exactly, it's not really a problem anymore.”
Langley: Most towns using Flock drones eliminate vehicular police pursuits
“So for most of our towns that have adopted our drone program, they end pursuits. They don't pursue anymore. Send the drone.”
Langley: Law enforcement customers do not regularly audit surveillance usage without mandates
“Not enough of our customers audit themselves on a regular basis. We can build software to make that easier, but we need to be pushed to do that. It was like, customers don't want it. They need to be told to do it.”
Flock Drones Cross a 30-Square-Mile Radius in Under One Minute
“Our average drone can cover a 30 square mile radius and get there within under a minute.”
Pope: Chip tape-outs cost $30M and fail 50% of the time
“The ideal, which companies tend to hit about 50% of the time is that your first tape out costs like thirty million dollars your first... The ideal is that your first tape out is actually, is your production thing. So you do a tape out, you make maybe a thousan…”
Pope: AI labs apply RL to software code, not chip architecture
“Models are extremely good at Rust and Python. They've done a lot of RL on them. They have not done as much RL on Verilog. They've done almost none on, okay, write, write me a markdown file that describes a chip architecture.”
Stripe processes $1.4 trillion in 2024 payment volume, up 38%
“Businesses on Stripe generated 1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from the prior year and reaching a scale equivalent to around 1.3% of global GDP.”
Collison: Stripe reached $1.9T in volume in 2025, up 34%
“Last year, businesses running on Stripe generated 1.9 trillion in total volume, up 34% from 24, an equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP.”
Collison: Tech and data center capex drove nearly half of 2025 US GDP growth
“Economy-wide, demand for software, computers, and data center investment drove nearly half of all U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and will likely soon be a majority of all U.S. Growth.”
Collison: Startups reaching $10M ARR in 3 months doubled in Stripe's 2025 cohort
“The number of companies reaching ten million in ARR within three months of launch was double that of the 24 cohort.”
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
Collison: US small business loan approvals fell to 41% in 2025
“Only 41% of small business loan applications were approved in the US last year, down from 50% in 2015.”
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
Glyman: Ramp surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue in six years
“You know, I think by the time we were
You know, six years and change.
The company had passed over a billion a year in revenue.”
Glyman: Ramp AI agent reviews expenses with over 99% accuracy
“Now you can have an agent functionally that does that, that takes that aspect of the job and so it has access to the full set of data that you, that, that you would, all the transaction related metadata, the receipt data, the timing data, the policy data, it t…”
Glyman: Ramp powers over 2% of US business card transactions
“I believe today, ramp powers more than two percent of all corporate and small business card transactions in the United States, which is amazing for a business that, you know, ah, the product you couldn't even sign up for it six years ago.”
Ben Thompson: TSMC cut capex for two years following ChatGPT's release
“ChatGPT comes out. Every hyperscaler starts investing like crazy. What does TSMC do? They actually decreased their capex year over year, two years in a row. They did, they, there was no market response from TSMC to the ChatGPT moment.”
Depledge: UK Pension Allocation to Domestic Equities Fell From 60% to 6%
“60% of pensioners' money used to be in, in UK equities and riskier funds. It's now six percent.”
Narayan: UK secured £25 billion in Welsh infrastructure deals
“We've just landed two of the biggest infrastructure investments in the history of Wales twenty-five billion of deals, a bunch of top-tier people associating with governments.”
Iqbal: US Investors Wired Hyde Capital in Two Weeks Versus UK's Months
“We in this, in our current round, we got an investor in the U S not who led it, who joined it. Their answer was two weeks and the money was sort of wired in the UK. It's like three, four months of deep due diligence and it's just a complete different mindset.”
DeWahl: Path for US nuclear reactor builds is clearer than ever
“There's just, like, so much happening where they're opening up federal land they're removing, starting to remove some of those, like, NEPA-type regulations that really just hold everything up so there is a clearer path now than there really ever has been for r…”
DeWahl: NRC rules now mandate licensing decisions within 18 months
“Right now, there's they've changed it to, you have 18 months to get your answer from the NRC. License or no license, like, do, do you pass or not?”