why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Pope: Google completely stopped publishing its AI research around 2022
“In twenty-twenty-two was about the time when just Google completely stopped publishing its research. And so all the good papers are from before that as a result.”
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Gemini Flash models reach 90% of Gemini Pro capability
“The flash models are at like 90% the capability of the pro models but much faster much more effective to serve and the vertical integration helps and so on.”
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Google scaled capital expenditures from $30 billion to $180 billion
“Look, I think, you know, we probably have scaled our capex from thirty billion to a hundred and approximately a hundred and eighty billion.”
Assertion Supported
Pope: OpenAI is starting to design its own custom chips
“Google does. OpenAI is starting.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: Google hired Windsurf's core research team while other functions remained intact
“There was a core kind of, like, research and product engineering team that went to Google, and the, all of the other functions were entirely intact, which includes enterprise engineering, infra, deployed engineering go to market, marketing, finance operations,…”
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Gemini has state-of-the-art spatial reasoning models for robotics
“The Gemini robotics models are sort of on spatial reasoning, et cetera, so we definitely have state of the art models there.”
Assertion Supported
Pichai: Gemma 4 is based on Gemini 3 architecture
“Of Gemma four is based on Gemini three architecture.”
Assertion Supported
Pope: Google built TPUv1 in 12-18 months with 20-30 engineers
“TPUv one actually was, I think, is a really impressive project. It was done on a very short timeline, maybe, I don't know the full details, but maybe about a year or so, maybe a year and a half with a skeleton team of 20, 30 people.”
Assertion Supported
Stripe host: Booking.com stock outperformed Google over the past 20 years
“If you invested a dollar in Booking.com and a dollar in Google 20 years ago, you made much more money as a Booking.com shareholder, and I think people don't appreciate that fact.”