why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2032
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2032
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2032
Jaffe: Graphite will continue to dominate EV anodes over the next decade
“On the anode side, it's going to be for this next decade, it's, we're still going to be living in a graphite dominated world with more and more silicon coming into the
The anode, but it's still going to be mostly graphite”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Jaffe: US will reach nearly 300 GWh of battery manufacturing
“The U.S. Will, in the next few years, have close to 300 gigawatt hours.”