The Ledger
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Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Lithium shortages will reduce non-China EV demand by 5% to 10%
“The EV demand outside of China, because China is going to be less affected by this because the Chinese investment in lithium has been has kept track with future demand requirements in twenty-twenty-five. But outside of China, we think that we have pulled back …”
Jaffe: Manganese-rich cathodes could become the most common EV chemistry by 2030
“Manganese is a inherently cheaper material and is going to end up, if they can make that middle bucket work really well, is going to be the, I think the most common
Chemistry of choice for cars by the end of the decade.”
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
Jaffe: Vehicle-to-grid integration is the future of EV battery deployment
“What I think is the future is vehicle to grid. And the, if you truly do have a million mile battery, the idea that you can use the Not just to drive it, but as a stationary storage device while it's in the car, becomes a very real prospect.”
Jaffe: Battery industry will nearly double every year for 5–6 years
“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”
US battery manufacturing will reach roughly 200 gigawatt-hours by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Jaffe: North America will import many stationary storage batteries from China
“We're gonna be importing a lot of batteries from China for stationary storage applications.”
New non-Chinese graphite facilities could produce significant volume by 2026
“I mean, there are graphite facilities being built today that should happen very relatively quickly and have a chance to be producing significant amounts of graphite in twenty-twenty-six.”
Jaffe predicts another big battery investment jump in next six months
“And I still think there, there's going to be another big jump in activity over the next six months with this guidance.”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: Treasury will likely apply EV battery 50% value rule in aggregate
“The, a good assumption to make is that it's, everything's going to be put into a bucket, 50% of the overall value of that battery has to be satisfied, but they haven't specifically said that yet.”
Jaffe: IRA pushes lithium processing to US, Canada, Australia, and Chile
“So there will be a big push towards hydroxide processing probably in Australia, in Chile but also in the U.S. And Canada.”
Jaffe: California and Texas to Capture Majority of New US Storage
“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”
Jaffe: Wave of battery supply chain announcements coming by Q1 2023
“We are expecting that by the end of the year or first quarter of next year, we will see a wave of announcements, and it's not just on the battery Factory front. It's the entire supply chain, and we're going all the way, you know, from mine to chemical refinery…”
Jaffe: EVs will hit about 6% of new US sales by 2024
“We think that we're going to get to about six percent by 2024, six percent of new cars sold will be EVs.”
Jaffe: Automotive OEMs will dictate EV battery chemistry in the future
“All, all of the companies are going towards that template where the car company now is going to be, in the future, the determinant of exactly what it, what those batteries are composed of.”
Jaffe: Inefficient battery startups will be weeded out during funding winter
“I think we are entering a winter in that regard. And Those that did raise money and inevitably, you know, didn't spend it perfectly in a perfectly optimized, efficient way are now going to are going to be weeded out.”
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”