why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Multani: FDIC reported $600B unrealized loss hole across US banks
“The stat I saw that the FDIC had put out was like a six hundred billion dollar hole in bank balance sheets across the US.”
Assertion Supported
Multani: SVB carried a $15B unrealized hole in held-to-maturity assets
“So you know there was a fifteen billion dollar hold in the book, but what they carried them at, yeah, what they carried them at was the fifteen billion higher.”
Assertion Supported
Multani: SVB financed roughly 60% of US community solar projects
“It's like, 60% of community solar projects. Yeah, that was in that same article. I think it's sort of a, sort of like a remarkable stat, because it's such a huge, and again, I'm sure a lot of it is in this area, so some of it has to do with geography as well, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Multani: Climatetech financing will not quickly snap back post-SVB acquisition
“I think folks will step into the void, but I do think we need to recognize that it's not gonna, oh, SVB's fixed, we're just gonna snap back to what it used to look like, and cost of capital's gonna go back to what it used to be, you know, the ability to access…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Multani: Innovation economy will not return to 2021 market conditions
“I don't think the impact of rising rates on the innovation economy and climate tech is, is over. I think, again, I don't think we can expect that this will pass, and we're going to go back to what it was in 21, early 22.”
Assertion Supported
Multani: Pre-revenue climate startups raised public capital at low costs
“These early stage companies that might be pre-revenue, certainly pre-cash flow, they were able to raise money to fund those cash flow losses in the public markets, also at very low effective costs of capital as well.”
Assertion Supported
Multani: ESG fund flows have been more resilient than conventional flows
“The ESG fund flows, the ones that can go back and forth, have actually been more resilient. Look, everything is down, right, but have been more resilient than conventional fund flows.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Multani: The downturn will test corporate willingness to pay green premiums
“The appetite to spend to internalize an externality that you're not forced to through some regulatory regime, right, inevitably through some policy regime, I think will absolutely get tested.”
Assertion Supported
Multani: SVB deposits grew from $60B in 2019 to $175B in 2022
“SVB had sixty billion of deposits in 19, is that year-end 19, a hundred billion in year-end twenty-twenty. A 190 at year-end twenty-twenty-one. And they were at about one 75 at year-end 22.”
Assertion Partly supported
Multani: Over 70% of First Republic deposits were uninsured
“So in the case to First Republic,
You know, high proportion, I think north of 70% of uninsured deposits.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Multani: Silicon Valley Bank clients often used First Republic as secondary bank
“In many cases, the secondary bank for someone who banked at SVB was FRB.”