The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Multani: FDIC reported $600B unrealized loss hole across US banks
“The stat I saw that the FDIC had put out was like a six hundred billion dollar hole in bank balance sheets across the US.”
Multani: SVB carried a $15B unrealized hole in held-to-maturity assets
“So you know there was a fifteen billion dollar hold in the book, but what they carried them at, yeah, what they carried them at was the fifteen billion higher.”
Multani: Depositors cannot realistically conduct deep risk due diligence on banks
“It's, look, again, it is far too much to ask for depositors to do this type of work on an institution they're going to leave their deposits with.”
Multani: SVB financed roughly 60% of US community solar projects
“It's like, 60% of community solar projects. Yeah, that was in that same article. I think it's sort of a, sort of like a remarkable stat, because it's such a huge, and again, I'm sure a lot of it is in this area, so some of it has to do with geography as well, …”
Multani: Climatetech financing will not quickly snap back post-SVB acquisition
“I think folks will step into the void, but I do think we need to recognize that it's not gonna, oh, SVB's fixed, we're just gonna snap back to what it used to look like, and cost of capital's gonna go back to what it used to be, you know, the ability to access…”
Multani: Innovation economy will not return to 2021 market conditions
“I don't think the impact of rising rates on the innovation economy and climate tech is, is over. I think, again, I don't think we can expect that this will pass, and we're going to go back to what it was in 21, early 22.”
Multani: Decarbonization is fundamentally a capital stock turnover problem
“Climate is at its core a capital stock turnover problem where we need to deploy Ultimately, pretty low-cost capital. The corpus of it needs to be in order to turn over our brown infrastructure and make it green.”
Multani: Pre-revenue climate startups raised public capital at low costs
“These early stage companies that might be pre-revenue, certainly pre-cash flow, they were able to raise money to fund those cash flow losses in the public markets, also at very low effective costs of capital as well.”
Multani: Market downturn reflects macro risk-off rotation, not climate-specific dislocation
“So you see this, you know, this dislocation in the market is not a climate tech dislocation. It's a it's candidly going from, like, risk on to seeing a lot of those, you know, risk on bets pull back. I mean, you're seeing it hit Everything from, you know, our …”
Multani: ESG fund flows have been more resilient than conventional flows
“The ESG fund flows, the ones that can go back and forth, have actually been more resilient. Look, everything is down, right, but have been more resilient than conventional fund flows.”
Multani: The downturn will test corporate willingness to pay green premiums
“The appetite to spend to internalize an externality that you're not forced to through some regulatory regime, right, inevitably through some policy regime, I think will absolutely get tested.”
Multani: Higher power prices offset rising interest rates for clean energy projects
“The reason why I think the impact won't be as big is as you think about the contracts that get struck, right? It's a function of your ultimate spread is a function of your offtake minus your input costs. And so, and one of your input costs is going to be cost …”
Multani: SVB deposits grew from $60B in 2019 to $175B in 2022
“SVB had sixty billion of deposits in 19, is that year-end 19, a hundred billion in year-end twenty-twenty. A 190 at year-end twenty-twenty-one. And they were at about one 75 at year-end 22.”