The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Orbuch: High-quality carbon removal offtakes rival legacy voluntary market size
“Most of the dollars that have gone into the sort of market for higher quality removals are forward offtakes, right? Shayle Kann: Right. Shayle Kann: I guess that's true. Ryan Orbuch: So the cash is spent when the removal is delivered. And like, if you add up a…”
Orbuch: Buyers cannot purchase real carbon removal for $10 per ton
“Turns out you can't spend 10 dollars a ton and do anything real.”
Orbuch: Carbon credit registries face structural conflicts when paid by suppliers
“The methodology creation itself is often conflicted, where the supplier is paying the registry to create a methodology for them, which has some obvious issues. Or they're using some other one that some other supplier created.”
Orbuch: The Clean Air Act caused net warming by reducing reflective aerosols
“The Clean Air Act was pretty meaningfully net warming for Earth, right? Like, it was an objectively good thing, obviously. Like, it saved probably millions of lives. It protected, you know, millions of people, and especially vulnerable communities from really …”
Orbuch: Forest carbon protocols completely ignore albedo effects that negate carbon storage
“No freaking forest carbon protocol accounts for albedo. And in some cases, it's, like, enough to almost undo the carbon storage provided by the forest.”
Orbuch: High-quality reforestation carbon removal projects cost over $50 per ton
“Good reforestation costs north of 50 dollars a ton, and if your system is set up to tell people that 12 dollars a ton is good, then no one's gonna buy that if you make the 12 dollars a ton thing look the same.”
Orbuch: Current ocean modeling resolution is too coarse to evaluate alkalinity enhancement
“Most of the modeling of ocean gas exchanges is done at, like, large global climate model tile sizes, not at small enough scale to actually know what part of the ocean is actually potentially good or bad to add some alkalinity to.”
Orbuch: Traditional carbon avoidance credit volumes dropped year-over-year in 2023
“After massive spikes in, in twenty-twenty-one especially we've seen traditional offset market, especially avoidance credits, actually down year over year on volume in twenty-twenty-three for the first time in a while.”