The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Grunwald: Feeding 2050 Population Needs Two Indias' Worth of New Land
“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 5:40 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Going vegetarian is climate-equivalent to only cutting beef due to dairy
“Going vegetarian is usually about the same as just cutting out beef, because vegetarians tend to eat more dairy.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 22:32 The climate-ag grab bag
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grunwald: Halving Beef and Waste Won't Eliminate Yield Gap by 2050
“Even if we Reduced our beef consumption 50% in rich countries, and reduced food waste 50% in the entire world, we would still need, you know, the numbers are so bad that we would still need to jack up our yields significantly to feed ten billion people by twen…”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 36:27 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Sri Lanka's Agrochemical Ban Immediately Crashed Crop Yields
“Well, we saw what happened in Sri Lanka, where they banned them, and immediately farm yields crashed. Sri Lanka could no longer feed itself. And essentially started outsourcing not only its food production, but the pollution and emissions from that production.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 9:30 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Cultivated meat costs fell at least 99.9% over past decade
“They've reduced the costs, like, I guess I would say certainly at least 99.9% in the last decade. Probably closer to 99.99%.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 26:58 The climate-ag grab bag
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Grunwald: Global Food Production Needs 6 Quadrillion More Calories by 2050
“You know, we're probably at this point gonna need about six quadrillion more calories by twenty-fifty which is, you know, I like to say it's like a dozen Olive Garden breadsticks every day for every human being on Earth. That's extra. We're gonna have to grow.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 5:14 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Food and Land Use Generate One-Third of Global Emissions
“And at the same time, we're gonna have to reduce emissions from food and land, which is about a third of our emissions overall. We're gonna have to reduce it 75, 80%.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 5:57 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Contradicted
Grunwald: Only 5% to 7% of Irrigable Farmland Remains Unirrigated
“Only five to, maybe five to seven percent of the world's agriculture that could be irrigated still needs to be irrigated which is a sort of wonky way of saying that it's going to be a lot harder to increase yields, you know, now that most farmland is irrigated…”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 14:20 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Half of All Fertilizer Applied to Fields Is Wasted
“Actually we already waste half of the fertilizer that we're putting down on these fields.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 15:36 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Beef Production Is 100 Times Less Efficient Than Direct Grain
“It takes about nine calories worth of grain to produce one calorie worth of chicken meat, and when it comes to cows, which are, you know, much less efficient, dairy is even worse, and beef, it's extraordinary. It can be 30, 50, some people would say a hundred …”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 21:47 The climate-ag grab bag
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grunwald: Metro Greenhouses Will Disrupt Long-Distance Lettuce Shipping
“I'm more bullish about the greenhouse because the sun is really awesome, and it seems like a better source of energy than, you know, trying to make your own which is why I think some of those greenhouses are going to solve the lettuce problem, and I think you'…”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 30:32 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Partly supported
Grunwald: Global agricultural and livestock yields have tripled since the 1960s
“Basically, we've tripled yields since the 19 sixties. So we're producing three times as much food, as much calories, as much protein per acre. You know, our livestock efficiency has also increased by a factor of three.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 10:56 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Cultivated meat industry has raised only $3B in cumulative investment
“So far, the entire cultivated meat industry has had about three billion dollars worth of investment in its entire history, and right, the Inflation Reduction Act is, you know, building battery factories in Georgia for that, that are going to be twice that and …”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 27:32 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Partly supported
Grunwald: London Campaign Cut Household Food Waste by 25% in Months
“In actually in London, they did a, I think it was called you know, love food, hate waste campaign, where they gave people tips on how to basically waste less food in their house, and they reduced food waste 25% in, you know, over in a matter of months.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 37:01 The climate-ag grab bag
Assertion Contradicted
Grunwald: Average American Discards Over $1,000 in Food Annually
“The average American wastes more than a thousand dollars a year on food that ends up going in the garbage.”
Mike Grunwald Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 38:36 The climate-ag grab bag
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