The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Quantum computers will outperform DeepMind's AI models at predicting protein folding
“DeepMind actually just released some really interesting papers on how they can predict, based on the sequence of amino acids, how a protein can fold. A quantum computer will be able to do that better. It just will”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 38:39 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Quantum computing will deliver breakout winners with shocking use cases by 2026
“And so I am highly optimistic that by within this decade for sure, we will have meaningful impacts from quantum computers. And I can imagine in the next three to five years we are going to see winners emerge with very specific use cases that are going to shock…”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 45:29 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Major tech companies will achieve true zero-carbon power without using offsets
“So there is a future In my opinion, for those companies to get to not just net zero on a on a basis of using offsets or other things, but actually truly having zero carbon power”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 22:40 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cupta: A single quantum computing architecture will dominate the market
“I do believe, much like we have with classical computing and all, a lot of other hardware, there is going to be a winning quantum computing architecture that scales faster and better than others, and then there are going to be potentially interesting, but like…”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 48:29 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cupta: Fully realized quantum computers will solve exponential permutation problems in parallel
“And this is the challenge that a quantum computer can solve in an ultimate state, because it's able to solve all those things in parallel versus doing something in series. And so problems get really, really challenging when you have permutations that grow at a…”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 9:14 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cupta: Transportation optimization will be quantum computing's first major climate win
“I do think it is going to be those optimization problems, honestly. I really think it's going to be in transportation, I think it's going to be in optimization because that problem is far more definable, it is easier, it takes a lower power quantum computer, T…”
Mark Cupta Dec 16, 2021 ▶ 46:05 Quantum computing could be a critical climate solution
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