The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
House: Nickel prices will drop below $30 per kilogram by April 2024
“These prices will not, I would bet against nickels being at 30 dollars a kilogram two years from now, because two years ago it was less than 20, and there were plenty of good opportunities, good projects out there, new projects that would work at 20.”
House: Elevated long-term lithium prices will constrain the energy transition
“We are confident the lithium price will stay, you know, elevated in the long run, not related to the current spike, but just in the long run, elevated, because there will be constant demand pressure, and in fact, I'm, you know, sort of concerned about it. I th…”
House: Reaching a fully circular battery economy will take 50 years
“We can achieve 90, 98, 99% recycling rates on these, on, on these batteries, and over time, we'll get to the point where we do not have to mine them which is really, really exciting. But that will take more than a generation, unfortunately. We need a lot more …”
House: Light-duty EV transition requires $5 trillion in new copper discoveries
“By our estimates, We need roughly five trillion dollars of new discoveries of copper, and this is, I mean, we'll come back to the, what I mean by discovery, well, let's keep going but new discoveries of copper just to fully electrify the light duty vehicle fle…”
House: Global lithium production must increase thirtyfold to 2.5 megatons by mid-century
“Now, it doesn't have to go up, but it has to go up to, by mid-century, something like two and a half megatons. So it has to grow by a, by over an order of magnitude, a factor of 30 or something like that, depending on your estimates, as opposed to doubling.”
House: Material limitations will not restrict grid storage battery scaling
“So I think for grid storage, it's no problem. I don't think we're going to have material shortcomings. No problem's not quite the right way to say it, but it's, we won't material limitations won't be a serious governor on grid storage applications, or even pot…”