why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Bayes: Renewables hedge geopolitical disruption while fossil fuels hedge grid reliability
“Fossil fuels or conventional fuels are a hedge on reliability, ultimately, that they provide reliability benefits to a system that has become more reliant on, ah, intermittent sources of electricity, but clean energy systems or renewables are a hedge on geopol…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Bayes: Projects with $500M+ tax credit tranches grew from two to dozens
“So, for instance, when we did our first report, we found, I think, maybe two, there were perhaps two projects that had tax credit Tronches are entitled to generate a tax credit in excess of five hundred million dollars. That number is into the dozens now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bayes: Clean energy financing bifurcated between bank debt and private credit
“So we see a bit of a bifurcation between the traditional kind of project finance bank capital source, which remains very Cost competitive for a lot of developers. And then some of our newer, smaller developers who are accessing other forms of capital, includin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bayes: Tax credit purchases reduce corporate effective tax rates by roughly 3%
“I mean, they're purchasing tax credits at a discount, and in general, what we find is that that translates to a reduction in their effective tax rate of roughly three percent, which is, I mean, if you have a hundred million dollars in tax liability that you're…”
Assertion Supported
Bayes: Bridge lending has broadened beyond traditional tax equity requirements
“We also saw significant growth in the bridge lending market, and bridge, bridge loans have been around for a long time, but they've generally always been available once a developer has secured a tax equity partner. Now what we see is that The variety of bridge…”
Assertion Contradicted
Bayes: 2025 Clean Energy Investment Was Front-Loaded for Safe Harbor
“I mean, we absolutely saw that investment Almost across the board was front-loaded into the first half of twenty-twenty-five, and so that's a reflection of the desire in many ways by developers to achieve certain safe harbor milestones so that they essentially…”