The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedmann: Congress is highly likely to preserve 45Q and 45V tax credits
“With respect to Forty-five-Q and other tax credits in the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act I give high odds That they will sustain, 45 Q, 45 V related projects.”
Friedmann: Ammonia power generation will be limited to select Asian economies
“I do think it's going to be unusual to It's going to be big in those economies, but not the rest of the world. India is not going to do this. The US is not going to do this. South Africa is not going to do this. They have other options. And so ammonia is a pow…”
Friedmann: Maritime shipping will use a mix of methanol and ammonia by 2050
“But in twenty-fifty, I think we're going to end up with a blend of both, in part because we're starting already with methanol. People are making investments in methanol ships and methanol bunkering because they want to decarbonize rapidly by twenty-thirty. And…”
Friedmann: Governments will soon mandate priority uses for biomass, disrupting contracts
“Pretty soon, there's gonna be some loading order priority, which a government, a municipal government, or a state government, or a federal government, comes out and says, you know, first use of biomass is for X, second use of biomass is for Y. And when that ha…”
Friedmann: Global ammonia trade will rely on ships, not pipelines
“There are not going to be huge amounts of ammonia pipelines going around the world. Like, we're not going to see that. The way that we use ammonia pipelines in the U.S. Today is sort of very unusual and bespoke for our purpose, but that's not the way that we'r…”
Friedmann: Europe's sustainable aviation fuel push risks deforestation and eco-colonialism
“So there's a risk that by Europe going forward fast on sustainable aviation fuels that may lead to eco-colonialism or may lead to deforestation and bad outcomes, even though they're chasing something virtuous.”
Friedmann: Europe will not deploy much gas-with-CCS due to fuel costs
“I will reiterate that this number, 70 to a hundred dollar megawatts, requires low cost natural gas. So Europe is not going to be doing a lot of this, right?”
Friedmann: Methanol will become a major fuel for decarbonizing maritime shipping
“And the reason why is because methanol is going to be an important maritime fuel. About two, two and a half percent of global emissions are shipping stuff around the world with boats. And it turns out that they need a clean fuel too. As we've talked about befo…”
Friedmann: Conductive carbon structures from CO2 possible in 15-20 years
“But these sort of, you know, superconducting carbon structures are a thing you could do, If not now, maybe in 15 years, maybe in 20 years.”
Friedmann: Community benefit agreements will become the template for CO2 pipeline approval
“I expect we're going to be seeing more of these kinds of things. That's not yes in every community, but it does mean that there will be some communities that opt in because they get the benefits themselves. So watch this space. This is no panacea or done deal,…”
Friedmann: Jet A will remain the winning aviation fuel specification
“And I think it is going to continue to be the case that Jet A is going to be the winner, and synthetic fuels of all stripes still have to make Jet A.”
Friedmann: Japan will use ammonia in its steel mills
“Japan is going to be putting ammonia into its steel mills”
Friedmann: Distributed ammonia production will emerge over the next decade
“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”
Friedmann: Waste biomass supply is sufficient for bankable 10-year offtake contracts
“In the near term, I'm less worried about the biomass supply, but I'm, I do mean that in the near term, in like the next 10 years or so. I think it's possible to put together long-term offtakes, that it's possible for those long-term offtakes to really be focus…”