The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Koomey: AI industry will pivot to massive efficiency gains under infrastructure constraints
“Between those various, ah, improvements that you can get beyond just shrinking transistors and making things closer together, there's orders of magnitude possibility for improving efficiency, and so my sense is that the, you know, the focus has been basically …”
Koomey: US data center load will double once more then level out
“It would not surprise me if You know, we saw another doubling, but I would say, you know, probably that's about it. I think that's going to level out, and then people are going to be more efficient at what they're doing based on the history”
Koomey: Data center compute grew 6x while power rose only 6% (2010-2018)
“We had about a six-fold increase in the compute output for data centers from 20 10 to 20 18, but electricity use went up a grand total of six percent over that period.”
Koomey: IEA hides data and calculations for its power forecasts
“Whereas some of the other projections, even From pretty credible organizations like the International Energy Agency, you can't actually figure out what they did. They don't release the data. They don't release the calculations in any explicit way.”
Koomey: US data center power share rose to 4.4% in 2023
“The U the U S number from the report to Congress that just came out from LBL was something like on the order of two percent of the electricity in 20, 20, 20, 21 was data centers. And now in 20, 23, now, 2023, which is the last historical year we have, it's 4.4…”
Koomey: IEA data center electricity estimates varied by 50% in 2024
“So for the year, 20, 22, the International Energy Agency did these projections. They did two of them in, in, in, 20, 24, and they started by trying to do history, and they looked at twenty-twenty-two, and the first study they released in January had a number t…”