why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Shah: Green ammonia is profitable today without any government subsidies
“Such that you know, I think green ammonia, you know, today is quite profitable without any subsidies at all even at today's cost of hydrogen, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Developers finding US sites with sub-$35/MWh power 90% of the year
“They are finding many, many, many locations across this country where you can average less than 35 dollars a megawatt hour for 90% plus of the hours of the year on the LMP.”
Prediction Held up
Shah: Non-lithium battery chemistries will reach commercial scale within five years
“I think we're actually five years away from all of those technologies being available at scale to the marketplace.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: All 15 US carbon black plants face EPA consent decrees
“And there's 15 major plants in the United States. All of them are under EPA, Department of Justice consent decrees. As of 2013, none of them had had Sox and Nox scrubbers on them, so the people who lived in those communities nearby were breathing in some of th…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: US electricity load growth is rising from 0.4% to 2.5% annually
“We are sitting in a moment right now where we are being told, and the data is suggesting that it's true, that we're going from 0.4% load growth a year to two to 2.5% load growth per year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Large warehouses have 200 TWh of cost-effective solar potential
“And when you look at, particularly for commercial distribution circuits you're talking about something on the order of 200 terawatt hours, right? Of cost-effective solar that can be put on warehouses that are four acres or larger in size, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: ACES secured investment-grade rating, unlike most single-B DOE LPO projects
“This project is really well structured. It was rated at investment grade for the loan, so it's actually really well structured. Many of our projects are triple C or single B in terms of its shadow credit rating”
Assertion Supported
Shah: Electricity distribution circuits are down to 20% asset utilization
“For many of us, because our distribution circuits have been upgraded so substantially, you're down to 20% asset utilization, right? So, like, so 20% of the total capacity of that circuit is being utilized, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: ACES is the first commercial hydrogen storage salt dome
“Yeah, so, I mean, I don't think there's ever been a salt dome repurposed for hydrogen in this way and so there's certainly been test facilities that have been built in the past, but to our knowledge, there's never been a commercial hydrogen storage salt dome, …”
Assertion Supported
Shah: ACES electrolyzers will initially pull grid power matched by RECs
“So for the first iteration they're just getting connected to the grid, and there's going to be a network of contracts and racks to make sure that it's a hundred percent clean energy.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: Continuous electrolyzer operation yields sub-$4/kg clean hydrogen
“When you think about using these kinds of electrolyzers and running them all the time you really can get below four dollars a kilogram for clean hydrogen, right? And so but that does require you to get affordable electricity, but also very high run times, righ…”
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Liquefied hydrogen shipping costs are generally over $8 per kilogram
“So then you end up with you end up with, you know, liquefied hydrogen, you know, shipments, which generally is very hard to do at less than eight or so dollars a kilogram of hydrogen.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: Banks are actively debt-funding Texas battery storage on merchant curves
“They take merchant risk now. You see all of the battery storage deals that are getting debt funded in Texas on ERCOT merchant curves.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: LPO statute authorizes financing the first two to six facilities
“And our statute allows us to do the first, you know, two to six facilities.”
Assertion Supported
Shah: LPO due diligence costs climate tech borrowers up to $2M
“You do have to pay for all of our costs, which can easily be one and a half to two million dollars to sort of do due diligence on the project, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Rocky Mountain Power pays battery rebates for 10-year dispatch rights
“Rocky Mountain Power has made it very clear that they view these behind-the-meter batteries as a certain value, and they're willing to pay you up front for it, and so they'll say, here's a big rebate, And now we get to do whatever we want within this service l…”
Assertion Supported
Shah: 400,000 MW of batteries are in US interconnection queues
“We have 400,000 megawatts of batteries in interconnection queues.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: ACES salt cavern will provide roughly 150 gigawatt-hours of storage
“Yeah, about a 150 gigawatt hours or so of storage there.”