The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chase: Solar glass and Tesla Solar Roof are a waste of time
“Exactly. And they're both a waste of time.”
Chase: Global Polysilicon Shortage Will End in Early 2023
“We think that this, the polysilicon shortage, we strongly think will end maybe in the next three months, although I've been saying that for a while.”
Chase: No perovskite lab product can last ten years in the field
“You still don't have a perovskite lab product that would really last 10 years in the field. And bear in mind that silicon solar modules are under warranty for 25 years, and a lot of developers are talking about forty-year lifetimes being assumed these days.”
Chase: European Solar Salespeople Pitch Returns Based on Unrealistic Power Inflation
“When salespeople sell solar systems, they have a very strong incentive already to assume that the power prices will increase, and then tell the consumers, oh, it will pay back in X years, or it will make you an IRR of 50%, and you look at them, and they're act…”
Jenny Chase: Solar will be built for green hydrogen production by 2030
“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”
Chase: Nearly 1 TW of Polysilicon Capacity Is Slated to Come Online by 2024
“There is nearly a terawatt of new polysilicon manufacturing capacity intended to come online in the next two years.”
Chase: European Governments Grant 18-Month Merchant Power Relief to Stalled Solar
“They've said, if you build your project now, we'll give you the merchant power price for the first 18 months, or until your project was due online. And since that is, well, technically the cap is a 180 euros a megawatt hour, and if you think of these projects …”
Chase: European Power Merchant Rates Hit 600 Euros per Megawatt-Hour
“There's a cap of 180 euros per megawatt hour because To solar and wind generators to, as basically a windfall tax on their profits. The merchant rates have sometimes been up to 600 euros a megawatt hour.”
Chase: US solar capex is 30% to 100% higher than Europe's
“Which is why US solar capexers are consistently 30 to a hundred percent higher than in, than for similar projects in Europe, and your import tariffs don't help either, but that's actually only a relatively minor part of it.”
Chase: Current home battery software cannot economically optimize dispatch
“Batteries for residential solar systems are becoming standard offers in Europe and in the U.S., Frankly, some of the sales proposals are of indifferent veracity, and the current software isn't up to economically optimizing when batteries charge and discharge.”
Jenny Chase: Indonesia will build more solar than forecasted as costs undercut coal
“I strongly suspect that there will be more solar in Indonesia than we forecast. Solar will get cheaper than coal there. It will find places to ease in. The government will probably even change its policy.”
Jenny Chase: Actual solar deployment consistently exceeds forecaster expectations
“But the history of solar shows that it, there's always more solar than you think there will be.”
BNEF Forecasts Global Solar Installations to Exceed 251 GW in 2022
“We are forecasting officially 251 gigawatts of build this year, up from 182 last year. So that's pretty strong growth, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out at higher than 251 gigawatts.”
Chase: EU is proposing one-month automatic rooftop solar permitting
“So the European Union is proposing to More or less automatically allow rooftop solar nearly anywhere with a permitting time of a month.”
Chase: Pre-2021 Fixed-Price Solar Projects Are Stranded in South Africa
“So, in South Africa, in some other geographies as well, you do have projects that have just been stuck in not preceding hell, because it, the economics no longer work for the contracts they're locked into.”
Jenny Chase: Europe has abundant brownfield and marginal land for solar
“Europe, it's really a mixture, because we have plenty of land in Europe that First of all, used to be used for industry and isn't anymore, or is used for agriculture, but not particularly productively.”