why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: 9-seat electric planes only get 150km range with current batteries
“With current battery technology, and including sort of the standard reserves that are required for flights, you would, you probably get about a 150 kilometers out of the nine seater aircraft, which is a lot less that's close to a hundred miles”
Insight
Mukhopadhyay: Electric Aircraft Need 500 Wh/kg Batteries Near Theoretical Limit
“Whether you're talking about nine, 19, or a hundred seat aircraft, you require at least a doubling of current battery technology, and that's really a significant increase, especially when you're thinking about just lithium ion batteries. That is close to sort …”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Electric aircraft can only address 0.1% of global passenger kilometers
“These electric aircraft in the end don't actually end up playing a significant role in terms of the global aviation market. We're talking about close to like .1% of the global aviation traffic can be serviced by these aircraft. Now that's in terms of sort of p…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Mukhopadhyay: Fleet turnover caps 2050 hydrogen aircraft penetration at 6% to 12%
“And so our projections suggest that even though hydrogen aircraft could service a third of passenger aviation, the actual market penetration is probably going to be more like six to 12% by 20 50. Because of that slow fleet turnover rate.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Non-CO2 aircraft impacts like contrails cause twice the warming of CO2
“They say that current research suggests that the impact, the non CO two impacts, which includes these contrail formation can be twice as much as the impact from CO two alone.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Airport hydrogen production infrastructure costs as much as a new terminal
“And the estimates for about, for what kind of Investment that would require is on the order of sort of build all of that onsite production and storage, it would cost as much for the airport to build a whole new terminal.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mukhopadhyay: Net-zero aviation by 2050 requires electric, hydrogen, and SAF
“And then on the lower end, electrify everything. As much can be electrified, should be electrified. Wherever hydrogen can be used, should be used, and everything else will require SAF to decarbonize, and that's really the only way we get to net zero emissions …”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Electric Aircraft Are 6-7x More Efficient Than SAF Jets
“When you take into account the electric propulsion efficiencies, you can get close to six to seven times more efficiency between electric aircraft and jet aircraft that are run on synthetic aviation fuels.”
Prediction Held up
Mukhopadhyay: Decarbonizing 2050 aviation requires today's entire global renewable energy output
“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mukhopadhyay: Lower Operating Costs Enable Short-Hop Electric Airline Routes
“With these smaller electric aircraft, you have a much lower operating cost, and so the economics of these shorter routes actually starts making sense again, and that is why you might be able to have these small airplanes enter at much lower ranges, but as you …”
Prediction Partly held up
Mukhopadhyay: Commercial electric aircraft deliveries will probably happen around 2026
“These companies are saying about 20, 24 for entry into market. I am guessing it's probably going to be more like 20, 26 by the time they're actually able to deliver aircraft on a regular basis to customers.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Direct hydrogen combustion produces NOx, so it isn't truly zero-emission
“When you're combusting hydrogen, however, you get water vapor, but you also get nitrous oxides, the NOx emissions from the combustion process itself. So there is so it isn't necessarily zero emission.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Liquid hydrogen combustion achieves vastly greater range and payload than fuel cells
“The fuel cell aircraft is sort of limited to short, smaller turboprop engines that can carry at most probably 60 or 70 passengers. And when you're using gaseous hydrogen, you're getting ranges of about 600 kilometers whereas if you're talking about liquid hydr…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Mukhopadhyay: Fuel cell aircraft expected in market by 2028 to 2030
“For fuel cell aircraft, you could probably expect them 20, 28, 20 30.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Mukhopadhyay: Liquid hydrogen combustion aircraft will not arrive before 2035
“And so with that timeline, yes, 2035 is probably the earliest I would expect a liquid hydrogen combustion aircraft to show up.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Synthetic Aviation Fuels Automatically Reduce Contrails
“The good thing about using synthetic aviation fuels is that automatically addresses some of that contrail impact because the contrails form because of incomplete combustion, because of sort of aromatic compounds that are in jet fuel. When you're creating pure …”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Electric Aircraft Are 2.5x to 3x More Energy Efficient
“And so these are significantly shorter than what fossil fueled aircraft can do, but they would be also a lot more efficient up to two and a half to three times more efficient than fossil fueled aircraft on just like a pure energy basis.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mukhopadhyay: Pipistrel Velis Electro is the only certified electric aircraft
“Currently there is one certified electric aircraft, and that one is the Pipistrel Vellis Electro. It's just a two-seater, and it can fly for about 40 minutes, and it's more of a training aircraft.”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Fuel Cells Produce Kilowatts While A320s Require 20 to 30 Megawatts
“Fuel cells right now are in the range of 203 hundred kilowatts whereas when you're talking about the power required to Run a single-aisle aircraft, like the A-three-twenty, we're talking in the megawatts, in tens of megawatts, 20, 30 megawatts required for tha…”
Assertion Supported
Mukhopadhyay: Direct hydrogen use is more energy efficient than synthetic SAF
“So instead of using the hydrogen, combining it with captured carbon to make the synthetic fuels, if you can use the hydrogen directly By all means, use that hydrogen directly. It'll be more energy efficient to do so.”