The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chubuk: AI cannot reason to breakthrough superconductors from training data alone
“I think it's still true that it would be difficult to just reason your way into a much better superconductor. I actually would guess that there's a law out there that we haven't discovered yet that says that you can't just look at your training set that's diff…”
Chubuk: LLMs already bridge solid-state chemistry and physics better than human specialists
“Like, there was probably a time when a physicist could contribute and be one of the best in the world on many fields of physics, but it's definitely not true today, and this is one of the reasons I think we are very excited about LLMs, because when you talk to…”
Chubuk: Science requires out-of-domain generalization unlike standard ML
“Machine learning works best on the training set distribution. But in science and technology, we almost only care about auto-domain generalization, right?”
Chubuk: Superconductivity moonshot will yield independently valuable automated lab capabilities
“To discover a exciting superconductor, we probably have to develop so many capabilities on the way there that's By themselves very useful. For example, automated synthesis, automated characterization, being able to model or predict high temperature superconduc…”
Chubuk: High critical magnetic field may matter more than Tc for fusion
“Another one could be a really high critical magnetic field, which turns out might even be more important for fusion applications than TC itself.”
Chubuk: Physical lab measurement prevents AI reward hacking
“For real life experimental measurement of TC, it's much harder to reward hack, which we love.”
Chubuk: Minimal physical experiments carry huge information value by validating synthetic simulations
“What's interesting about scientific data is it's not just a few bits or numbers, right? Like, for example, there are certain experiments you can run where the result you get from it is just, say, three floating point numbers. But the implications of those coul…”