The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chubuk: OpenAI o1 showed test-time compute improves results beyond training sets
“So what O-one showed is if you spend test time compute, you can get better results. So that was very exciting to me because there was one way of investing resources that was beyond the training set.”
Chubuk: AI is currently not better than humans at hypothesis generation
“It does seem like today there are things that ML, AI is better than humans, but one of those things is not hypothesis generation.”
Chubuk: High-throughput liquid- and powder-mixing robots have become commoditized
“These robots, they became quite commoditized, actually, just mixing powders, or mixing liquids, and then sending it to characterization.”
Chubuk: Periodic Labs aims to achieve automated materials characterization soon
“I think one thing that isn't as advanced right now, but we feel like we can do pretty soon, is automated characterization itself. So, you mix powders, you put it in the, some characterization tool, you get the result out, What is the actual output? I think tha…”