why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2046
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of
Mind.
I think.
I think.
Eventually.
Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts predicts the concept of distinct distributed energy resources will fade away
“You and I know that the way the long-term evolution is that basically everything that is plugged in is gonna become a resource eventually. Like, the notion of DERs as a kind of distinct category, I think, is just gonna kind of fade away, because eventually, li…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Thermal batteries will unlock decarbonization of industrial heat
“I think the reason it's going to be a big enough deal that even normies will hear about it is that it is going to be this kind of skeleton key that unlocks the decarbonization of industrial heating and cooling, which is, you know, one of the big quote unquote …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Substitution and market supply will solve critical mineral shortages long-term
“I just think substitution plus new sources. Over the midterm, mid to longterm, is going to solve this. I agree that there will be years, couple of years, choke points here and there, as we've all, as we've already seen a couple of materials get tight. But I ju…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roberts: Autonomous vehicles will become ubiquitous in some cities within 5-10 years
“So anyway, I think within five to 10 years, we will at least see cities where these things become ubiquitous, and then I think at the very least we'll have directionally Answers to some of these things.”