The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

4statements match

0resolved → 2open predictions → 0held up → 0didn’t hold up →

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Visioni: 20 years will not be enough to scale CDR effectively

“I do not think personally that in the 20 years are going to be enough to scale CDR solutions in a really, in a way that would really make an impact.”

Dan Visioni Jun 16, 2022 ▶ 37:20 Making sense of solar engineering

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Visioni: Rogue geoengineering planes could simply be shot down

“This could be another one of the things where it is maybe unlikely that a single actor could do it because, as one reviewer once pointed out to me, you can shoot the planes out of the sky.”

Dan Visioni Jun 16, 2022 ▶ 42:15 Making sense of solar engineering

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2033

Visioni: Planet-altering geoengineering deployment is extremely unlikely in next decade

“Whatever happens, we're not doing, we're not going to change the planet in the next decade. There, we just, there's no upside. There's, it's extremely unlikely.”

Dan Visioni Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 41:15 Stopping geoengineering, by accident

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2072

Visioni: Space mirrors for geoengineering unlikely in next 50 years

“It is very unlikely that in the next 2030, 50 years, we could scale up space industry in a way that would allow us to have large, gigantic, controllable space mirrors at L Two.”

Dan Visioni Jun 16, 2022 ▶ 25:35 Making sense of solar engineering

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