why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Steingart: Redwood, Ascend, and Li-Cycle rely on scrap exceeding 20%
“Currently, all three of these companies are living off of gigafactory scrap, which is exceptionally high, over, over 20%, as I understand it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steingart: Battery recyclers will face a lean period as scrap rates drop
“I worry about the business case here because the gigafactories have every incentive in the world to minimize this amount of scrap, and so at the same time, we don't want batteries to die, so every recycler is going to have a lean period as scrap rates go down.…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Steingart: Direct recycling is likely the only viable path for LFP batteries
“I think if LFP recycling is going to have a shot, it's going to be on a direct recycling route, and for those that know me and get a beer with me after conferences, they're probably doing a spit take, because I'm pretty skeptical of direct recycling in a lot o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steingart: Pyrometallurgy is cheaper and more reliable than hydrometallurgy
“They are but they give you a guaranteed result, and it is generally cheaper than the cousin that, that I like more, which is hydrometallurgy.”
Assertion Contradicted
Steingart: Pyrometallurgy represents majority of battery recycling in China
“In my experience, or at least in my conversations with Chinese recyclers in, in China, where there are fewer local restrictions on having pyro in certain provinces. Pyro is, as I understand it now the majority of recycling methods.”
Assertion Contradicted
Steingart: Early Tesla used laptop battery cells to avoid explosion risks
“Six years later, after all of these batteries catching fire, the initial team at Tesla said, let's just use cells that we don't know don't explode, which are cells that are in laptops. So the immediate predecessor to the cell that Brett took apart was used in …”
Assertion Supported
Steingart: Hydromet battery recyclers use piranha solution to cut leaching time
“What most recyclers use now for hydromet digestion is, is a combination of sulfuric acid with hydrogen peroxide for a bit of kick H two O two. And this is really nasty stuff. It's called piranha, because it eats through anything, and, ah, it reduces the reside…”
Assertion Supported
Steingart: Ascend Elements avoids solvent extraction with Hydro-to-Cathode process
“In terms of on the opposite end, in terms of innovating on a well understood process, Ascend Elements is has something they call hydro to cathode. That's a process in which they cleverly don't
[1078] Use solvent extraction because they say, hey, most of what t…”