The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

3statements match

1resolved → 1open predictions → 1held up → 0didn’t hold up →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up

Rutherford: Electric aviation is limited to flights of 300 kilometers or less

“But by our analysis, you know, it's really a market for commuter flights, and for flights of, you know, 300 kilometers or less for the foreseeable future, just because of the underlying mass penalties of the technology.”

Dan Rutherford Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 33:14 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050

Rutherford: SAFs will lead aviation decarbonization through 2040 before hydrogen potentially emerges

“You know, 2030, SAFs, definitely. 2040, I would also say SAFs. 20 50, it may shift to hydrogen.”

Dan Rutherford Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 37:24 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Rutherford: Aviation emissions could triple by 2050 without intervention

“And by some accounts, overall emissions could triple by mid-century unless additional action is taken to reduce the pollution.”

Dan Rutherford Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 6:23 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation

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The Ledger

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