why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Brooke: US agricultural methane emissions exceed all fossil fuel methane combined
“Between interior fermentation and manure management in the U.S., that's more methane than our natural gas systems, petroleum systems, and coal mining combined.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Brooke: Global livestock emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2050
“And we're expecting animal protein consumption to increase about, by about 20% by mid-century, about twenty-fifty. And that's going to result in an increase in emissions from livestock production by about 46%.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Efficiency improvements can abate 20% of projected livestock emissions growth
“The projections are about 20%. We can debate about 20% of the emissions that were expected to increase By this improvement in efficiency. It's actually one of the largest sectors of, ah, marginal abatement that we, that we've modeled.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: The 3-NOP feed additive consistently delivers a 30% methane reduction
“Generally, three NOP can deliver, and it has very consistently delivered, an average of about 30% reduction, absolutely, across the board.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Bromoform cuts methane up to 90% in beef cattle on feedlots
“We see that in beef cattle, So on a ration like a beef, beef feedlot ration, high grain, up to 90% reduction, massive reductions, but those animals are also producing less methane already, whereas in a dairy setting, that same compound is maybe going to achiev…”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Selective cattle breeding can reduce methane emissions by 20-30%
“We find that there are low methane and high methane phenotypes, and we can, it's heritably tractable. We can breed for low methane phenotypes, and this could be 20 to 30% reductions while we maintain the same efficiency in, you know, in these high efficiency g…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brooke: Stacking selective breeding and feed additives could cut cow methane 60-70%
“So you could get maybe 30% from a breeding program, and then you can stack a feed additive on top of that, and then now you're talking maybe, you know, 60, 70% reduction.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: US environmental claims for cattle feed require eight-year FDA process
“Here in the US, if you're going to make a claim about something, like it decreases methane emissions you have to prove that. And that really pigeonholes you into A new animal drug pathway, which is quite extensive. We're talking, you know, average of upwards o…”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Feedlot beef cattle produce significantly less enteric methane than dairy cows
“Beef animals produce significantly less at the feedlot stage than, say, a dairy animal.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Enteric methane is directly responsible for over 0.1°C of global warming
“Now, on a warming standpoint, we're talking about half a degree C of warming effect is due to methane, and about a little over .1 degree C, about a fifth of the warming from methane is, is resulting from enteric methane.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Over 80% of livestock emissions come from pasture animals, not feedlots
“Yeah, so my projection is about 80, over 80% of the emissions are from animals on pasture.”
Assertion Contradicted
Brooke: Alternative hydrogen acceptor feed additives reduce methane by less than 10%
“The alternative hydrogen acceptors, things like nitrate is a, has been a common one, although its general efficacy is generally lower than 10%, and there's a limit to how much you can feed.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brooke: Early livestock methane mitigation is driven by corporate insetting
“Early days of the market is, is pretty much driven by an inset or offsetting market. So this is going to be, you know, corporate action in the supply chain to drive this change. They've set some sort of emissions reduction target and they're trying to achieve …”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Enteric fermentation is the largest global source of anthropogenic methane
“And that is the largest source of methane anthropogenic source of methane globally.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brooke: The US has roughly 90M beef cattle versus 12M dairy cows
“We're talking about ninety million you know, beef cattle, whereas we have about, you know, twelve million dairy cows, right?”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Agriculture drives 40% of global methane, mostly from enteric fermentation
“When you look at the overall methane emissions globally, agriculture is about 40%, and 70% of that is enteric methane.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brooke: India holds roughly 20% of the world's cattle, followed by Brazil
“About a fifth
[626] Charles Brooke: Of the cattle population is in India.
[629] Charles Brooke: and that's followed by Brazil.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Stopping cow methane emissions could recapture 2% to 12% dietary energy
“Between two and 12% is generally thought to be what we could gain if we were able to redirect that energy into actual productive processes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brooke: 3-NOP must be fed twice daily due to fast metabolism
“Three in OP, you have to feed that thing twice a day, because it metabolizes very quickly. It works very well, but it metabolizes very quickly.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: California livestock methane adoption funding was eliminated in budget cuts
“California had some funding to deploy an adoption program, an early adoptions program during the recent budget hit that seems to have gone away.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Elanco's Experior is the first animal drug approved with environmental claims
“One product has been approved in this area for ammonia reduction, and that was a product called Xperior from out of Elanco. But it's really the first product of its kind to make an environmental claim on a drug platform.”
Assertion Supported
Brooke: Livestock methane research focused purely on productivity until the early 2000s
“For the, in the guise of, if we can yield that energy that's going to methane into milk or meat, we can have far more productive animals. And so that's really been the focus of a lot of the research until the, you know, the early 2000. We really started to shi…”