why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Araque: Super-hot geothermal will achieve $50 to $100 per MWh globally
“The higher outputs will be a big part of bringing those LCOEs down, and we see a hundred dollars per megawatt hour at the meter, no matter where you are in the world. Now, that includes the shallow and the deep systems. If you look specifically at the shallow …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Araque: Quaise will achieve 25-30 MW EGS flow test by end of 2026
“For us in particular, the project in Oregon gets that flow test by the end of this year. By the end of twenty-twenty-six, Quaze has a commercial-grade Injector producer per EGS system producing 25 to 30 megawatt equivalent electric output from a flow test.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Araque: Quaise will run first supercritical geothermal flow test by 2028
“From there in twenty-twenty-eight, so two years later, we'll do another version of that, that is not at three miles, but a little bit deeper and above the 400 degrees Celsius or so. We're basically walking up the temperatures of that site to unlock those outpu…”
Assertion Supported
Araque: Existing geothermal regions reach 800°F closer to 3 miles deep
“Everywhere where you have geothermal today is very likely one of those places where you'll find the 800 degrees Fahrenheit at three miles, closer to three miles than closer to 12 miles.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Araque: Shallow super-hot geothermal requires only incremental oil-and-gas hardware evolution
“So talking about the shallow ones, it's incremental improvements. There's a lot of precedence already in oil and gas. There's something in oil and gas called SAGD, steam-assisted gravity drainage, which injects steams, steam at temperatures up to 600 degrees F…”
Assertion Partly supported
Araque: Over 50 super-hot geothermal wells have been drilled worldwide
“And just like that location, I can point to more than 50 wells drilling the world by people looking for super hot hydrothermal systems that are going to be in the three to four mile range and are going to be in the 600 to 800 degrees Fahrenheit. Some of them a…”
Assertion Contradicted
Araque: Traditional hydrothermal wells reach at most a mile deep at sub-boiling temperatures
“For traditional hydrothermal not, not very deep at all. You're going maybe a mile at most, and you're getting as hot as what the water that's down there gets you. It's usually sub-boiling. It's hard to get to boiling temperatures. You're talking about 200 degr…”
Assertion Supported
Araque: 800-degree Fahrenheit rock exists between 3 and 12 miles deep globally
“Always looking for 800 Fahrenheit, and you'll find it anywhere between three miles to 12 miles deep, depending on where you are in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Araque: 800°F Geothermal Wells Transfer 10x More Power Than 200°F Wells
“So at the end of the day, the same wellbore, let's call it eight inch in diameter, very typical size it will transfer maybe one to 10 megawatts electric equivalent. If it's flowing at 200 degrees Fahrenheit, I will transfer 10 times that if it's flowing at 800…”
Assertion Partly supported
Araque: China's 11-km borehole took an entire year for the final kilometer
“The Chinese recently did an eleven-kilometer haul, and I'm switching units because they, it's been reporting those units. So, about eight miles deep. The first 10 kilometers took a year to drill, and the last one kilometer took another year to drill.”