why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Vahdat: AI inference does not require gigawatt-scale data center capacity
“You don't strictly need a gigawatt of capacity to be able to do useful work. You probably don't even need a hundred megawatts of capacity. It gets a little bit more interesting than that because of, let's say, co-located compute and storage and networking and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vahdat: AI footprint will favor many medium data centers over gigawatt hubs
“It'll really come down to geographic locality and probably a medium number of medium-sized data centers. Sorry for the whatever lack of precision there, but medium number of medium-sized data centers augmented with a small number of large data centers.”
Insight
Vahdat: The AI industry should accept lower-reliability power delivery
“No, it is not intrinsic and we should be thinking about lower reliability power delivery overall.”
Disclosure
Vahdat: Google trades uptime for capacity in customer co-design
“Without saying too much, it's happening. I would say there's actually the co-design there with our customers at Google has been one of our sources of significant efficiency.”
Insight
Vahdat: AI scaling bottlenecks constantly rotate between labor, power, and chips
“When delivering the end-to-end, we unfortunately don't have the luxury of focusing on a single limiter. I would say very sincerely and honestly at 10 a.m. It's labor, at noon it's power, and at two p.m. It's chips every single day.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vahdat: Interactive AI models will require geographically distributed inference infrastructure
“So as these services become more interactive, as they become more efficient, and that, that is still going to be a journey. We're not there today. You're going to want to have geographic locality. That's also going to impact reliability, because again, you can…”
Assertion Supported
Google reached 1 GW in utility demand response agreements by March 2026
“In March, we actually hit a significant milestone in agreements with utilities for a gigawatt of demand response across our fleet.”
Disclosure
Google uses behind-the-meter power while waiting years for grid transmission
“We like behind the meter if it means that we get the capacity up most quickly, but we're always going to look to invest with the utilities to bring the transmission. Maybe it's a year after. Maybe it's two years after, right?”
Opinion
Vahdat: The AI data center community is underinvested in microgrid software control
“The microgrid and the software control here is going to be absolutely key. And this is a place where I think we as a community are under invested today.”
Disclosure
Vahdat: Google co-designs TPUs directly with power sources, buildings, and Gemini
“In other words, for us, for let's say our TPUs, we co-design them with a building. We co-design them with the power generation source. We co-design them with the DeepMind team that builds Gemini models. So it's the software above, the models above that, the ch…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vahdat: Safety-critical physical AI compute will have to run on-device
“Without talking about any specific use case, I believe that a lot of it's going to have to be on device and dedicated to that use case.”
Insight
Vahdat: Dominant compute costs force data centers to sacrifice fungibility
“If compute is not the dominant portion of your cost, you actually want to have flexibility and fungibility. When compute becomes a more dominant portion of your cost, you now actually are thinking, okay, what am I going to do for this year, next year, and the …”
Disclosure
Vahdat: Google does not use blank workloads to smooth training power draw
“We don't do this, but yes, others.”
Disclosure
Vahdat: Many Google data centers target four nines of availability
“Many of our data centers aim for four nines of, I mean, minutes of downtime a year maximum, which as you said has a large amount of costs associated with it.”
Assertion Supported
Vahdat: AI accelerator power density is 100x higher than storage
“And the difference between storage and compute was at most 10 X. The difference between storage and accelerators are approaching a hundred X.”