The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Çubuk: AI simulations will never completely eliminate physical lab work
“So I think, I can't imagine a future where we completely eliminate lab work. Because, first of all, we don't know if quantum mechanical simulations will ever become good enough to correctly predict experiments, you know, all the time.”
DeepMind uses transformers to model spatial interactions in weather, not time
“We actually use transformers not to model the spatial, the interactions in weather over time, like the sequence of text, but in space.”
Çubuk: AI models excel at textbook science but cannot generate paradigm shifts
“AI hasn't really done this yet. Even today's best AI models seem to be really good at kind of doing the textbook stuff, you know, like high school, college, but then when you think about being more creative and, you know, trying to shift the paradigm, it's bee…”
DeepMind primarily uses traditional supervised learning for AI weather models
“What we use in our weather forecasting models, and a lot of folks out in the community are using it as, you know, as this field is advancing and this AI-based weather forecasting is developing, we're still mostly using fairly traditional machine learning, supe…”
Çubuk: DeepMind’s next materials goal is predicting finite temperature stability
“One of our next goals is to predict not just zero Kelvin stability, but finite temperature stability, and this is much harder because at finite temperature, there's entropy effects, and we're interested in, you know, finding not just materials that are stable,…”
Battaglia: Advanced weather forecasting has massive headroom for electric grid optimization
“But I have a feeling that there's a lot of headroom, a lot more to be gained in how we, you know, plan our, you know, how to operate our electrical grids, how we predict what the electrical demand is going to be.”
Battaglia: Logistics and supply chains have barely tapped AI weather forecasting
“I think that supply chains and logistics and, you know, even just like lots of choices that, you know, driving and these type of things, I think, really could be better informed by better weather forecasts, and I don't think we've even begun to kind of get int…”