The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly. They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
Sam Jaffe Jul 21, 2022 ▶ 38:05 Seeking the holy grail of batteries
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2032
Jaffe: Over 600 GWh of battery manufacturing will onshore in North America
“We expect over 600 gigawatt hours worth of battery manufacturing to onshore in North America Over the next decade.”
Sam Jaffe Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 31:20 Is the Inflation Reduction Act a win for EVs and batteries?
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2032
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”
Sam Jaffe Jul 21, 2022 ▶ 28:13 Seeking the holy grail of batteries
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