Gnevamir Fleece weighs the regulatory trade-offs between additionality and temporal correlation in EU green hydrogen policy.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fleece: Relaxing hydrogen correlation rules will increase gas burning and insecurity
“In fact, if you have super relaxed rules, which you would base purely on renewable energy credits, or maybe guarantees of origin with no form of additionality whatsoever, you would actually Increase energy insecurity, because you'd be burning more gas than if …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fleece: Cheaper renewables abroad will drive industrial production out of Europe
“So I think we will, in the end, see some industrial shift out of Europe, just because it'll be, some countries have natural competitive advantage in, in, in access to cheaper renewable resources, and thereby,
Making their hydrogen production costs lower.
and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fleece: Imported ammonia will be used directly rather than cracked to hydrogen
“I think, at the end of the day, what's going to happen is that ammonia is going to be sold into international markets for, as ammonia.”
Assertion Supported
Fleece: Hourly versus yearly temporal correlation shifts hydrogen costs by 10 percent
“The difference between Even yearly and hourly temporal correlation, the difference in, in the levelized cost of hydrogen and how that impacts the price of hydrogen is not that much. There has been recently, very recently in September, an excellent paper from t…”
Assertion Supported
Fleece: Regulatory delays stalled announced European hydrogen projects before final investment decisions
“The issue was that everybody was waiting for that regulation. So everybody was waiting for the decarbonized gas package and the hydrogen package, as well as the delegated act, which specified these renewable rules. So lots of projects announced, very little pr…”
Insight
Fleece: One day of local storage makes green hydrogen projects viable
“I think hydrogen storage, local hydrogen storage, not necessarily huge salt caverns, but, you know, a day's buffer worth will be enough to make some of these export projects or many projects actually fly.”