Doğuş Çubuk, a research scientist at Google DeepMind, discusses how deep learning model performance scales predictably with dataset size across physics and materials science.
Opinion
Çubuk: AI simulations will never completely eliminate physical lab work
“So I think, I can't imagine a future where we completely eliminate lab work. Because, first of all, we don't know if quantum mechanical simulations will ever become good enough to correctly predict experiments, you know, all the time.”
Insight
Çubuk: Physical materials experiments are as noisy as computational simulation errors
“In material science, I think one of the issues is the experimental data is actually quite noisy. So, you know, this is something that you might hear often that simulations and DFT isn't very accurate, and that's true, but maybe one thing that People don't noti…”
Opinion
Çubuk: AI models excel at textbook science but cannot generate paradigm shifts
“AI hasn't really done this yet. Even today's best AI models seem to be really good at kind of doing the textbook stuff, you know, like high school, college, but then when you think about being more creative and, you know, trying to shift the paradigm, it's bee…”
Insight
Çubuk: Deep expertise optimizing existing materials hinders discovering radically different ones
“The better you know a system,
The more you can continue optimizing the system, but it doesn't necessarily mean that knowledge will help you discover something different.
And I think this is probably why a lot of important discoveries are serendipitous, because…”
Opinion
Çubuk: Optimization of decades-old materials impedes commercialization of new discoveries
“If you think about plastics, we're still mostly using things that we discovered 70 years ago, 80 years ago, and we've gotten so good at, you know, manufacturing them, optimizing them, so now
For someone to come up and say, oh, I discovered a completely differe…”
Assertion Supported
Çubuk: Duracell batteries use a cathode material discovered via computational simulations
“There's one example that often gets talked about. I think one of the cathode materials maybe from Sader group and materials project, I think is in Duracell batteries.”