Mario Fernandez, head of Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, outlines the technical validation milestones necessary before venture and infrastructure investors will finance first-of-a-kind (FOAK) climate hardware projects.
Assertion Contradicted
Fernandez: $70B infrastructure funds hold 15-year zero-loss records across all projects
“There is 70, 60, seventy billion dollar infrastructure funds that have a 15 year track record that have never lost money on any project they've invested in.”
Insight
Fernandez: Climate Startups Succeed by Deploying Tech Directly, Not Licensing
“What we found looking at over 300 projects, 350 projects in the past couple of years, is the fact that the companies that actually deploy their own technology and follow that path
Are the ones that get to success. There are companies that have spent two or thr…”
Insight
Fernandez: Skill shortage, not capital, is the biggest FOAK bottleneck
“My, our contention is that capital is an issue, but the biggest issue is the skill set that is required to be able to help the companies see a risk and really assess the risk of that big construction operation of first of a kind.”
Insight
Fernandez: Climate tech scaling requires sequential 5-20x demonstration and FOAK steps
“The way we propose to do this is, you know, that company has to follow a path towards that de-risking, and that path in our, ah, experience is you go from a pilot to a five to 20 x demonstration project, and then you go to another 10, 10, 20 times, ah, first o…”
Insight
Fernandez: Startups lock in offtake prices before engineering reveals 2x CapEx
“We find that many times off-takes are priced in a way before engineering, you know, failed one, failed two, engineering have been done, and it's based on optimistic CapEx assumptions. Now, when the companies go through the engineering process and they actually…”
Assertion Contradicted
Fernandez: Post-COVID, large EPC contractors no longer offer lump-sum turnkey contracts
“The reality is the EPC CapEx world changed dramatically after, after COVID, right? Things that used to be very secured, large scale EPC companies that used to be able to give you a, you know, lump sum turnkey contract are just not doing that anymore in, in con…”