Energy Impact Partners' Dr. Greg Thiel discusses modeling pitfalls in techno-economic analysis (TEA) for early-stage climate tech startups.
Insight
Thiel: New grid storage must hit $100-$150/kWh to beat 2030s LFP
“So I think that the numbers that we've landed on in, in our work are sort of in the hundred to 150 dollars per kilowatt hour total installed system cost. If you can see a path, a pretty clear path to those numbers, with your system, then you probably have a pr…”
Assertion Supported
Thiel: Even at $1/kg hydrogen, synthetic methane feedstock costs $10/MMBtu
“In the best case, you need something like half a kilo of hydrogen per kilo of methane. And so if we looked into a, to a wonderful version of the future where we, Get to the kind of magic one dollar per kilogram hydrogen mark that, you know, is, is on the DOE's…”
Insight
Thiel: Synthetic fuels require $1/kg hydrogen and $100–$200/ton CO2
“And you know that, you know, for a fuel, if you want to get anywhere close to economically competitive, you know, subsidies decide you have to have hydrogen that's going to be on the order of a dollar per kilogram, and you have to have CO two that's in that 10…”
Assertion Supported
Thiel: Synthetic fuels require $1/kg hydrogen and $100-$200/ton CO₂ to compete
“For a fuel, if you want to get anywhere close to economically competitive, you know, subsidies decide, you have to have hydrogen that's going to be on the order of a dollar per kilogram, and you have to have CO₂ that's in that 100 to 200 dollar per ton range, …”
Insight
Thiel: New grid storage must hit $100-$150/kWh to compete in 2030s
“The numbers that we've landed on in, in our work are sort of in the hundred to 150 dollars per kilowatt hour total installed system cost. If you can see a path, I mean, a pretty clear path to those numbers with your system, then you probably have a pretty good…”
Insight
Thiel: Small-scale green Haber-Bosch struggles with synthesis loop scaling
“So, so at the end of the day, if you're trying to scale down a Greenhaber Bosch plant, maybe maybe you'll be able to do okay on the core parts of the electrolysis side of the equation here, the cells and stuff and so forth. But the ammonia synthesis loop and t…”