Adrian Yao compares the raw material input costs of sodium-ion battery precursors against lithium.
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“Sodium carbonate, soda ash, is basically like 200 dollars per ton as opposed to where lithium mine sits right now, 10,000 dollars per ton. But in the height of twenty-twenty-two, lithium was at basically 60 to maybe some cases 80,000 dollars per ton.”
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More from Adrian Yao
Opinion
Yao: Claiming sodium-ion is inherently safer than lithium-ion is objectively wrong
“Saying kind of a blanket statement that Sodium ion is safer than lithium ion. I can tell you that is objectively wrong, right?”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 18:22The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
Insight
Yao: Manufacturing scale alone won't make sodium-ion cheaper than LFP
“It's not about scale. It's not about just taking the chemistries and sodium mine today and then scaling the hell out of it... What drives the cost at the end is the materials intensity... Just focusing on scale won't get us there.”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 31:15The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Yao: Anode-free sodium-ion battery cells could reach $40 to $50/kWh
“An anode-free sodium ion cell is one of the most competitive technologies out prices out there, because you don't have a negative electrode material that, that adds to cost, as well as the ability to really increase energy density. Those numbers can get to pot…”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 35:23The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
AssertionSupported
Yao: CATL's CEO projects sodium-ion taking half of the LFP market
“Robin Zhang, the chairman and CEO of CATL, announced basically last November that he expects Sodium Mines to take up to half of LFP's market share.”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 42:05The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
AssertionSupported
Yao: LFP battery cell prices have fallen below $50 per kWh
“So, so current prices for LFP are basically at, I think it was reported to be about 56 dollars per kilowatt hour in the middle of last year. I think that number is down to maybe forty-something, sub-fifty now.”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 27:37The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
AssertionSupported
Yao: Lithium-ion battery material costs could hit a $35/kWh floor
“If I model out the price floor, basically, Bill of materials only. Take out manufacturing costs. I can see a world in which we get to 35, I can see a world in which we can be at 35 today. 35 dollars per kilowatt hour.”
Adrian YaoFeb 20, 2025▶ 27:55The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries
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