Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: Europe's sustainable aviation fuel push risks deforestation and eco-colonialism
“So there's a risk that by Europe going forward fast on sustainable aviation fuels that may lead to eco-colonialism or may lead to deforestation and bad outcomes, even though they're chasing something virtuous.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: At $60-$120/ton CO2, burying biomass beats energy conversion
“For some of these systems, it's like, 60 dollars a ton. It's just cheaper to bury the carbon instead of making something. And at a carbon price of, say, a hundred bucks or a 120 bucks, that's pretty much everything.”
Insight
Friedmann: Hyperscalers prioritize deployment speed over cost and carbon
“We've learned the top five things that the hyperscalers and people building data centers want is, in this order, speed, speed, speed, cost, and carbon. All of those are important, but speed is the thing that is driving a lot of this.”
Disclosure
Friedmann: Zero announced gas CCS data centers, but hyperscalers are circling
“Are there announced projects? No. But we are getting a lot of inbound on this exact topic, and we are talking to, if not all of the hyperscalers, almost all of the hyperscalers.”
Insight
Friedmann: Carbon capture projects are impossible without transport and storage infrastructure
“If there is no CO₂ transportation in storage, there is no project. Period. Plop. You can't make it work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: Europe will not deploy much gas-with-CCS due to fuel costs
“I will reiterate that this number, 70 to a hundred dollar megawatts, requires low cost natural gas. So Europe is not going to be doing a lot of this, right?”
Insight
Friedmann: Adding Carbon Capture Reduces Pollutant Load of Gas Plants
“And in fact, if you have a natural gas plant that's running uncontrolled, carbon capture reduces the pollutant load.”
Opinion
Friedmann: Policy uncertainty is killing carbon capture investment decisions
“This kind of uncertainty is killing investment decisions at best. They're delayed at some point or another people just walk away. And it is critically important that the United States resolve these questions firmly and clearly so that investors can put money t…”
Insight
Friedmann: Only a fraction of captured CO2 will be recycled into products
“To turn CO₂ into stuff usually takes energy or money. And so, in the same way we only recycle a fraction of our produced goods of any kind, whether it's glass or aluminum or paper or whatever, we also will only recycle a fraction of the CO₂.”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Oil and gas geology has 10 to 20 trillion tons of CO2 storage capacity
“We have something like 10 to 20 trillion tons of storage capacity in those kinds of rocks.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedmann: Hundreds of companies convert CO2 into building materials
“Now there's hundreds of companies that turn CO₂ into those kinds of products.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: Methanol will become a major fuel for decarbonizing maritime shipping
“And the reason why is because methanol is going to be an important maritime fuel. About two, two and a half percent of global emissions are shipping stuff around the world with boats. And it turns out that they need a clean fuel too. As we've talked about befo…”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Advanced carbon materials like graphene sell for $100k per ton
“If you can actually turn CO two into those materials, they're hard to make, but boy, are they valuable. They're like a 100,000 dollars a ton.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: Conductive carbon structures from CO2 possible in 15-20 years
“But these sort of, you know, superconducting carbon structures are a thing you could do, If not now, maybe in 15 years, maybe in 20 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedmann: Community benefit agreements will become the template for CO2 pipeline approval
“I expect we're going to be seeing more of these kinds of things. That's not yes in every community, but it does mean that there will be some communities that opt in because they get the benefits themselves. So watch this space. This is no panacea or done deal,…”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedmann: German pipeline opposition forces CO2 transport onto Rhine river barges
“We're seeing that happening right now in Europe, where basically, instead of doing pipelines, they're doing barges. They're putting CO₂ on boats and shipping it down the Rhine, and the reason why is because they can't get a pipeline through Germany. Like, Germ…”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedmann: The United States already has 10,000 miles of ammonia pipelines
“The fact that blew my brain is the United States has already 10,000 miles of ammonia pipeline in it.”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Carbon capture on ammonia synthesis achieves only 60% decarbonization
“A first useful consideration is should you just capture that CO₂ and store it, keep it out of the atmosphere? And in a bunch of places, that will be the fastest, cheapest way to decarbonize. That only typically gets you 60% decarbonization.”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Japan committed to buying low-carbon ammonia at a premium
“Basically, the government of Japan has said, we will buy low carbon ammonia at a premium, and we will use it to decarbonize our existing infrastructure.”
Prediction Held up
Friedmann: Jet A will remain the winning aviation fuel specification
“And I think it is going to continue to be the case that Jet A is going to be the winner, and synthetic fuels of all stripes still have to make Jet A.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Friedmann: Japan will use ammonia in its steel mills
“Japan is going to be putting ammonia into its steel mills”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Injecting hydrogen into blast furnaces caps out at 20% decarbonization
“So if you take an existing blast furnace and put hydrogen into it, you can get about 20% decarbonization. Okay, that's worth doing, but you can't get 50% decarbonization with hydrogen.”
Prediction Held up
Friedmann: Distributed ammonia production will emerge over the next decade
“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: Waste biomass usage could remove up to 5.5 billion tons CO2
“A study we did is on the order of two and a half to five and a half billion tons of CO₂ could be removed by just using that waste.”
