Dec 1, 2022 · 45m · catalyst
Unpopular solar opinions, 2022 edition
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and BloombergNEF solar analyst Jenny Chase dissect Chase's annual list of contrarian solar opinions, covering supply chain pressures, deployment bottlenecks, policy impacts, and the technological realities of global decarbonization.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 47.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 6.5 Guest teaching 3.9 Guest disagreement 4.1 Shayle pushing back 2.6
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 32:17 Guest quip on dysfunctional US politics sustaining subsidies
Jenny sarcastically summarizes the host's argument by declaring that the US political system is simply broken enough to maintain excessive subsidies indefinitely.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 30:16 Host rejects premise of IRA subsidy rollbackShayle directly rejects the guest's thesis that the IRA will overheat and be curtailed, citing congressional precedent on non-expiration of tax credits.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 41:38 Guest redefines the 2030 net-zero shortfallJenny reframes the host's question about physical constraints by revealing that the forecast deficit stems from institutional analyst conservatism rather than actual real-world limits.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 30:50 Host details legislative mechanics and subsidy durabilityShayle demonstrates commanding domain expertise on US policy mechanics, explaining the difference between tax expenditures and direct budget outlays.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Deployment Bottlenecks and Polysilicon Market Pressures | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | The host demonstrates deep familiarity with solar manufacturing cycles and polysilicon pricing history, framing technical questions on supply chain dynamics. The guest elaborates on BNEF's 251 GW forecast and unexplained supply absorption, while the exchange remains highly collaborative. | |
| Deployment Obstacles: Installation Labor, Permitting, and Interconnection Queues | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | The host highlights interconnection queues as an existential threat to utility-scale projects based on his US market expertise. The guest provides international context on European permitting proposals and grid curtailment issues in Western Australia. | |
| Technological Realities: Skepticism on Perovskites and Building-Integrated PV | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | The guest aggressively dismisses technological hype around perovskites and building-integrated PV, labeling them unready lab technologies and wastes of time. The host fully agrees with her skepticism while helping define terminology. | |
| Sponsor Break: Data Center Power, Business Energy, and Virtual Power Plants | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | The segment includes mid-roll sponsor reads followed by a discussion of underwater pre-2021 fixed-price PPAs. The host cites historical US California PPA renegotiations, and the guest details European emergency interventions such as merchant price caps. | |
| The Inflation Reduction Act: US Solar Booms and Policy Durability | 8 | 3 | 6 | 7 | The guest argues that over-generous IRA subsidies could trigger a legislative rollback or trade disputes. The host forcefully pushes back using detailed historical examples of US tax credit permanence and fossil fuel subsidy precedents, prompting a sardonic concession from the guest. | |
| Residential Solar-Plus-Storage Proposals and Economic Modeling | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | The guest calls out aggressive residential solar sales proposals with exaggerated inflation and payback assumptions. The host contrasts the European financial pitch with the US market's grid-resilience value proposition. | |
| Debunking Land Constraints on Global Solar Expansion | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | The guest bluntly rejects land constraint arguments, pointing out that US golf courses alone could host 370 GW. The host seconds the point, while the guest explains European marginal agricultural land availability. | |
| 2030 Global Solar Projections and Net-Zero Pathways | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | When the host asks what physical bottleneck causes the 2030 BNEF forecast to fall short of net-zero goals, the guest completely flips the premise, explaining that the shortfall is merely an artifact of analyst forecast conservatism across regional markets like Indonesia. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Kann: Full solar systems now cost 10% of 2000s module-only prices
“This was starting in the late 2000 when solar module prices, modules, mind you, not systems, were in the five dollar a watt range. And today, of course, you could build entire systems for maybe 10% of that.”
Kann: Solar will be the primary technology driving global decarbonization
“I continue to fundamentally believe that solar is going to be the bedrock of decarbonization. Put another way, if you ask me what single technology will do the most to mitigate climate change, short of some potential geoengineering or nuclear fusion future, my…”
BNEF Forecasts Global Solar Installations to Exceed 251 GW in 2022
“We are forecasting officially 251 gigawatts of build this year, up from 182 last year. So that's pretty strong growth, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out at higher than 251 gigawatts.”
Chase: Polysilicon Factories Take at Least 18 Months to Build in China
“It takes at least 18 months to build a factory for polysilicon, even in China, and a lot longer anywhere else.”
Chase: Nearly 1 TW of Polysilicon Capacity Is Slated to Come Online by 2024
“There is nearly a terawatt of new polysilicon manufacturing capacity intended to come online in the next two years.”
Chase: Global Polysilicon Shortage Will End in Early 2023
“We think that this, the polysilicon shortage, we strongly think will end maybe in the next three months, although I've been saying that for a while.”
Kann: Interconnection may be the biggest bottleneck to the energy transition
“Like, I think interconnection may end up being The single largest bottleneck to the energy transition, or even climate tech across all things”
Chase: EU is proposing one-month automatic rooftop solar permitting
“So the European Union is proposing to More or less automatically allow rooftop solar nearly anywhere with a permitting time of a month.”
Chase: No perovskite lab product can last ten years in the field
“You still don't have a perovskite lab product that would really last 10 years in the field. And bear in mind that silicon solar modules are under warranty for 25 years, and a lot of developers are talking about forty-year lifetimes being assumed these days.”
Chase: Solar glass and Tesla Solar Roof are a waste of time
“Exactly. And they're both a waste of time.”
Chase: Pre-2021 Fixed-Price Solar Projects Are Stranded in South Africa
“So, in South Africa, in some other geographies as well, you do have projects that have just been stuck in not preceding hell, because it, the economics no longer work for the contracts they're locked into.”
Chase: European Governments Grant 18-Month Merchant Power Relief to Stalled Solar
“They've said, if you build your project now, we'll give you the merchant power price for the first 18 months, or until your project was due online. And since that is, well, technically the cap is a 180 euros a megawatt hour, and if you think of these projects …”
Chase: European Power Merchant Rates Hit 600 Euros per Megawatt-Hour
“There's a cap of 180 euros per megawatt hour because To solar and wind generators to, as basically a windfall tax on their profits. The merchant rates have sometimes been up to 600 euros a megawatt hour.”
Kann: US Congress almost never repeals existing tax credits early
“One is, in the U.S., we have a great track record of never, basically never pulling back on existing tax credits once they exist. We sometimes don't extend them, but it'd be very difficult to point to a situation in which there has been a tax credit in place s…”
Chase: US solar capex is 30% to 100% higher than Europe's
“Which is why US solar capexers are consistently 30 to a hundred percent higher than in, than for similar projects in Europe, and your import tariffs don't help either, but that's actually only a relatively minor part of it.”
Chase: Current home battery software cannot economically optimize dispatch
“Batteries for residential solar systems are becoming standard offers in Europe and in the U.S., Frankly, some of the sales proposals are of indifferent veracity, and the current software isn't up to economically optimizing when batteries charge and discharge.”
Chase: European Solar Salespeople Pitch Returns Based on Unrealistic Power Inflation
“When salespeople sell solar systems, they have a very strong incentive already to assume that the power prices will increase, and then tell the consumers, oh, it will pay back in X years, or it will make you an IRR of 50%, and you look at them, and they're act…”
Kann: US home batteries lack economic value; rely on resiliency pitch
“When residential batteries emerged as a market in the U.S., you know, it was true in most places initially, and even through to today in most parts of the country, there's not really an economic value proposition there. For a behind the meter battery, it's the…”
Jenny Chase: Europe has abundant brownfield and marginal land for solar
“Europe, it's really a mixture, because we have plenty of land in Europe that First of all, used to be used for industry and isn't anymore, or is used for agriculture, but not particularly productively.”
Jenny Chase: Indonesia will build more solar than forecasted as costs undercut coal
“I strongly suspect that there will be more solar in Indonesia than we forecast. Solar will get cheaper than coal there. It will find places to ease in. The government will probably even change its policy.”
Jenny Chase: Solar will be built for green hydrogen production by 2030
“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”