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Mar 2, 2023 · 48m · catalyst

More 2023 trends: EVs, onshoring, and the three ages of decarbonization

Nat Bullard · 26m spoken Shayle Kann · 14m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and energy analyst Nat Bullard explore key decarbonization trends, analyzing the peak of internal combustion engine sales, the surge of supply chain onshoring under the Inflation Reduction Act, the economic benefits of modular infrastructure, and the historical evolution toward board-level net-zero governance.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 31.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 6.0 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 1.2 Shayle pushing back 2.0
05100:0015:0030:0045:002:14–10:17 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Host Welcome and Overview of Decarbonization Insights Kann and Bullard analyze global vehicle sales trends and the rapid rise of EVs within a contracting overall auto market. Kann actively contributes by calculating the 30% decline in ICE sales over six years and probing the strategic chicken-and-egg dynamics of market share growth.10:23–17:18 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Segmenting Electrification: Two-Wheelers, Transit, and Heavy Freight Bullard presents data showing that two-wheelers and buses dominate fleet electrification far beyond passenger cars, driven heavily by China. Kann engages collaboratively, connecting bus adoption to Chinese policy and raising class-8 heavy-duty trucking as an emerging fifth segment.17:24–25:52 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Supply Chain Localization: Onshoring, Reshoring, and the IRA The conversation examines onshoring and supply chain localization trends spurred by the IRA. Kann demonstrates sector fluency by citing specific industrial expansions like Hanwha's multi-billion-dollar solar facility and First Solar's domestic capacity additions.25:56–38:11 · Shayle as informed peer 7/10 Mid-Roll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub Following mid-roll ads, the pair examine Flyvbjerg's data on megaproject cost overruns versus modular solar. Kann pushes back on whether advocates take the modularity thesis to an unreasonable extreme, and references Form Energy's multi-day battery deployments at retiring coal sites.38:12–47:18 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 The Three Ages of Decarbonization and Corporate Governance Bullard outlines his framework on the three ages of decarbonization, culminating in the complex demands of corporate net zero targets. Kann probes whether corporate resolve will hold given multi-decade timelines, while Bullard points out the lack of energy literacy on corporate boards.2:14–10:17 · Guest teaching 3/10 Host Welcome and Overview of Decarbonization Insights Kann and Bullard analyze global vehicle sales trends and the rapid rise of EVs within a contracting overall auto market. Kann actively contributes by calculating the 30% decline in ICE sales over six years and probing the strategic chicken-and-egg dynamics of market share growth.10:23–17:18 · Guest teaching 4/10 Segmenting Electrification: Two-Wheelers, Transit, and Heavy Freight Bullard presents data showing that two-wheelers and buses dominate fleet electrification far beyond passenger cars, driven heavily by China. Kann engages collaboratively, connecting bus adoption to Chinese policy and raising class-8 heavy-duty trucking as an emerging fifth segment.17:24–25:52 · Guest teaching 3/10 Supply Chain Localization: Onshoring, Reshoring, and the IRA The conversation examines onshoring and supply chain localization trends spurred by the IRA. Kann demonstrates sector fluency by citing specific industrial expansions like Hanwha's multi-billion-dollar solar facility and First Solar's domestic capacity additions.25:56–38:11 · Guest teaching 4/10 Mid-Roll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub Following mid-roll ads, the pair examine Flyvbjerg's data on megaproject cost overruns versus modular solar. Kann pushes back on whether advocates take the modularity thesis to an unreasonable extreme, and references Form Energy's multi-day battery deployments at retiring coal sites.38:12–47:18 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Three Ages of Decarbonization and Corporate Governance Bullard outlines his framework on the three ages of decarbonization, culminating in the complex demands of corporate net zero targets. Kann probes whether corporate resolve will hold given multi-decade timelines, while Bullard points out the lack of energy literacy on corporate boards.2:14–10:17 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Host Welcome and Overview of Decarbonization Insights Kann and Bullard analyze global vehicle sales trends and the rapid rise of EVs within a contracting overall auto market. Kann actively contributes by calculating the 30% decline in ICE sales over six years and probing the strategic chicken-and-egg dynamics of market share growth.10:23–17:18 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Segmenting Electrification: Two-Wheelers, Transit, and Heavy Freight Bullard presents data showing that two-wheelers and buses dominate fleet electrification far beyond passenger cars, driven heavily by China. Kann engages collaboratively, connecting bus adoption to Chinese policy and raising class-8 heavy-duty trucking as an emerging fifth segment.17:24–25:52 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Supply Chain Localization: Onshoring, Reshoring, and the IRA The conversation examines onshoring and supply chain localization trends spurred by the IRA. Kann demonstrates sector fluency by citing specific industrial expansions like Hanwha's multi-billion-dollar solar facility and First Solar's domestic capacity additions.25:56–38:11 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Mid-Roll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub Following mid-roll ads, the pair examine Flyvbjerg's data on megaproject cost overruns versus modular solar. Kann pushes back on whether advocates take the modularity thesis to an unreasonable extreme, and references Form Energy's multi-day battery deployments at retiring coal sites.38:12–47:18 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Three Ages of Decarbonization and Corporate Governance Bullard outlines his framework on the three ages of decarbonization, culminating in the complex demands of corporate net zero targets. Kann probes whether corporate resolve will hold given multi-decade timelines, while Bullard points out the lack of energy literacy on corporate boards.2:14–10:17 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Host Welcome and Overview of Decarbonization Insights Kann and Bullard analyze global vehicle sales trends and the rapid rise of EVs within a contracting overall auto market. Kann actively contributes by calculating the 30% decline in ICE sales over six years and probing the strategic chicken-and-egg dynamics of market share growth.10:23–17:18 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Segmenting Electrification: Two-Wheelers, Transit, and Heavy Freight Bullard presents data showing that two-wheelers and buses dominate fleet electrification far beyond passenger cars, driven heavily by China. Kann engages collaboratively, connecting bus adoption to Chinese policy and raising class-8 heavy-duty trucking as an emerging fifth segment.17:24–25:52 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Supply Chain Localization: Onshoring, Reshoring, and the IRA The conversation examines onshoring and supply chain localization trends spurred by the IRA. Kann demonstrates sector fluency by citing specific industrial expansions like Hanwha's multi-billion-dollar solar facility and First Solar's domestic capacity additions.25:56–38:11 · Shayle pushing back 3/10 Mid-Roll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub Following mid-roll ads, the pair examine Flyvbjerg's data on megaproject cost overruns versus modular solar. Kann pushes back on whether advocates take the modularity thesis to an unreasonable extreme, and references Form Energy's multi-day battery deployments at retiring coal sites.38:12–47:18 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 The Three Ages of Decarbonization and Corporate Governance Bullard outlines his framework on the three ages of decarbonization, culminating in the complex demands of corporate net zero targets. Kann probes whether corporate resolve will hold given multi-decade timelines, while Bullard points out the lack of energy literacy on corporate boards.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 31.6% · guest 68.4%0:00 · Shayle 31.6% · guest 68.4%3:00 · Shayle 27% · guest 73%3:00 · Shayle 27% · guest 73%6:00 · Shayle 44.1% · guest 55.9%6:00 · Shayle 44.1% · guest 55.9%9:00 · Shayle 16.1% · guest 83.9%9:00 · Shayle 16.1% · guest 83.9%12:00 · Shayle 23.5% · guest 76.5%12:00 · Shayle 23.5% · guest 76.5%15:00 · Shayle 44.2% · guest 55.8%15:00 · Shayle 44.2% · guest 55.8%18:00 · Shayle 50.6% · guest 49.4%18:00 · Shayle 50.6% · guest 49.4%21:00 · Shayle 14.3% · guest 85.7%21:00 · Shayle 14.3% · guest 85.7%24:00 · Shayle 23.6% · guest 76.4%24:00 · Shayle 23.6% · guest 76.4%27:00 · Shayle 24.1% · guest 75.9%27:00 · Shayle 24.1% · guest 75.9%30:00 · Shayle 40.1% · guest 59.9%30:00 · Shayle 40.1% · guest 59.9%33:00 · Shayle 11.3% · guest 88.7%33:00 · Shayle 11.3% · guest 88.7%36:00 · Shayle 48.6% · guest 51.4%36:00 · Shayle 48.6% · guest 51.4%39:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%39:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 100%42:00 · Shayle 63.3% · guest 36.7%42:00 · Shayle 63.3% · guest 36.7%45:00 · Shayle 41.1% · guest 58.9%45:00 · Shayle 41.1% · guest 58.9%48:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 0%48:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 33:21 Bullard re-qualifies modularity versus megaprojects

Bullard gently rejects the extreme either/or framing regarding distributed versus centralized generation, stating that modularity is simply a distinct operational modality rather than an absolute replacement for all firm power needs.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 32:28 Kann challenges anti-megaproject orthodoxy

Kann questions whether the modularity argument is taken to an unsustainable extreme when commentators suggest completely abandoning large-scale energy infrastructure projects.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 11:04 Bullard breaks down non-passenger electrification scale

Bullard reveals the immense divergence in global electrification rates, demonstrating that two-wheelers and transit buses have achieved vastly higher adoption and fleet totals than passenger EVs.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 7:39 Kann calculates the steep contraction in ICE sales

Kann isolates ICE vehicle sales from the aggregate car sales figures to demonstrate that combustion engine volume experienced an abrupt 30% collapse over six years.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
Host Welcome and Overview of Decarbonization Insights 6312 Kann and Bullard analyze global vehicle sales trends and the rapid rise of EVs within a contracting overall auto market. Kann actively contributes by calculating the 30% decline in ICE sales over six years and probing the strategic chicken-and-egg dynamics of market share growth.
Segmenting Electrification: Two-Wheelers, Transit, and Heavy Freight 5411 Bullard presents data showing that two-wheelers and buses dominate fleet electrification far beyond passenger cars, driven heavily by China. Kann engages collaboratively, connecting bus adoption to Chinese policy and raising class-8 heavy-duty trucking as an emerging fifth segment.
Supply Chain Localization: Onshoring, Reshoring, and the IRA 6312 The conversation examines onshoring and supply chain localization trends spurred by the IRA. Kann demonstrates sector fluency by citing specific industrial expansions like Hanwha's multi-billion-dollar solar facility and First Solar's domestic capacity additions.
Mid-Roll Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub 7423 Following mid-roll ads, the pair examine Flyvbjerg's data on megaproject cost overruns versus modular solar. Kann pushes back on whether advocates take the modularity thesis to an unreasonable extreme, and references Form Energy's multi-day battery deployments at retiring coal sites.
The Three Ages of Decarbonization and Corporate Governance 6312 Bullard outlines his framework on the three ages of decarbonization, culminating in the complex demands of corporate net zero targets. Kann probes whether corporate resolve will hold given multi-decade timelines, while Bullard points out the lack of energy literacy on corporate boards.

Statements from this episode (10)

Assertion Supported
Bullard: Global car sales peaked at 85M and dropped below 70M
“So, like, not only did sales peak at about eighty-five million and decline to below seventy million as of the third quarter last year on a trailing twelve-month basis.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 4:40
Assertion Supported
Bullard: EVs account for more than 100% of auto industry growth
“More than a hundred percent of the auto industry's growth It's coming from electric vehicles. Like, they are the only growth, ah, cohort within cars.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 5:10
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bullard: No breakout global automakers emerged since Korean firms in the 1990s
“We really haven't had new breakout global high quality automakers since probably the Korean companies were doing this in the 19 eighties and 19 nineties.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 9:28
Assertion Partly supported
Bullard: Global electric fleet reached 287M two-wheelers versus 27M passenger cars
“We've now reached twenty seven million electric vehicles, passenger vehicles on the road. We have two hundred and eighty seven million electric two wheelers on the road, and fewer than a million electric buses and electric commercial vehicles.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 12:05
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Earnings call mentions of onshoring topped 175 in Q2 2022
“By the second quarter, it's jumped up to, like, a 125 mentions of onshoring, reshoring, and nearshoring. And then by, The second quarter of last year, it's more than a 175 mentions in total, of which most of the mentions are about onshoring.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 18:37
Assertion Supported
Bullard: US EV value chain announcements reached $70B in 2022
“I mean, I have elsewhere here that there's about seventy billion dollars worth of announcements last year in the, in EV value chain in the United States.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 21:58
Insight
Bullard: Mineral processing, not extraction, is the clean tech bottleneck
“You know, the determining step for so many of these things is not fundamentally, you know, acts, access or availability within the earth's crust, but where it is that it gets processed.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 23:23
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Nuclear projects average 120% cost overruns, 55% exceed budget by 50%+
“Nuclear power has a mean cost overrun of a 120%. And 55% of projects have a 50% plus cost overrun.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 29:08
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Solar projects average 1% cost overruns compared to large infrastructure
“The mean cost overrun for solar power is one percent, and only two percent of solar projects ever have a cost overrun of more than 50%.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 29:45
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Only 1.2% of Fortune 100 board members have energy expertise
“Like you find 1.2% of the Fortune 100 board knows anything about energy.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 46:12
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