Feb 1, 2024 · 36m · catalyst
What’s really happening in the U.S. EV market?
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Host Shail Khan and BloombergNEF analyst Corey Cantor analyze the real trajectory of the US electric vehicle market, debunking bearish media headlines with empirical sales data while examining automaker platform execution, pricing dynamics, and charging infrastructure challenges.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 20.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 4.2 Guest teaching 4.9 Guest disagreement 0.7 Shayle pushing back 1.1
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:15 Rebutting dealer lot pileup narratives
Cantor criticizes mainstream reporting for ignoring direct-sales manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, calling doom-and-gloom takes hyperbolic given 50% market growth.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 5:39 Reframing sales slowdown vs production expectationsKann pushes back against vague media claims of an EV slowdown by explicitly distinguishing between actual historical deliveries and OEM adjustments to future capacity plans.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 20:25 Dissecting the Hertz Tesla fleet depreciationCantor explains the true financial mechanics behind Hertz's EV fleet reduction, showing it was driven by Tesla's retail price slashing destroying residual values rather than consumer disinterest.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 13:52 Identifying OEM platform bottlenecksKann synthesizes industry observations to challenge whether sales hurdles are general demand problems or specific execution failures at Detroit legacy automakers.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deconstructing Bearish Headlines with 2023 EV Sales Reality | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kann sets up the analytical frame by distinguishing between actual sales data and media headlines. Cantor clarifies that 2023 saw nearly 50% YoY growth to 1.45M units, pointing out that dealer inventory metrics misrepresent the market by omitting Tesla and Rivian. | |
| Examining US Market Share and Global EV Benchmarks | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Kann prompts Cantor to contextualize EV adoption relative to the overall vehicle market. Cantor outlines US EV market share rising from 2% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2023, comparing the pace to European adoption levels. | |
| Detroit Legacy Automakers Face Production and Platform Struggles | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Kann asks which automakers are pulling back on production. Cantor provides a detailed breakdown of GM's Ultium platform delays, the Bolt sunsetting, and Ford's limited lineup consisting of the Mach-E and F-150 Lightning. | |
| Tesla Platform Transitions and Global Competition from BYD | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Kann questions whether Tesla is facing similar challenges given Hertz's fleet selloff and vague 2024 guidance. Cantor explains that Tesla's core vulnerability is relying heavily on two aging high-volume models compared to BYD's broader catalog. | |
| Sponsor Messages: Clean Data Center Power and Energy Management | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Following mid-roll sponsor spots, Kann asks for an explanation of Hertz dumping 20,000 EVs. Cantor details how Tesla's aggressive price cuts caused massive residual value losses for Hertz alongside charging logistics hurdles. | |
| Hyundai and Kia Success Through Multi-Model Strategy | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Kann introduces Hyundai and Kia as successful insurgent players in the US. Cantor explains their multi-model offering strategy across several vehicle segments and their multi-generational battery engineering experience. | |
| BYD Global Expansion and US Market Entry Obstacles | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Kann explores the likelihood of Chinese automakers entering the US passenger market. Cantor reviews BYD's growth from 400k to 3M units in four years and outlines how IRA FEOC rules and 27% tariffs keep them out for now. | |
| 2024 Market Forecasts and Sub-Thirty-Five-Thousand-Dollar Vehicle Pricing | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | Kann asks for forward-looking 2024–2025 growth forecasts. Cantor outlines BNEF's 32% growth projection and explains that unlocking the sub-$35k price point is essential to capture the lower 50% of the US auto market. | |
| Charging Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Reliability Challenges | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Kann asks if charging infrastructure deficits can be directly correlated with demand friction. Cantor cites Cox Automotive survey data, a steep drop in 2023 connector installations, and the fact that only 4% of NEVI funds had been awarded. |
Statements from this episode (22)
Cantor: US EV sales grew nearly 50% in 2023 to 1.45M
“By the end of twenty-twenty-three, according to our data, EV sales were up almost 50% year on year from 2022 to about 1.45 million in total, up from about 971,000. Now we're counting both BEV and PHEV in our kind of EV metrics, but impressive nonetheless.”
Cantor: December was highest US EV sales month in 2023
“But when you're looking at the actual monthly sales data, it was really only October and November that we saw in our preliminary data where there was any type of dip. In fact, December was the highest month we had for all of 2023, again, based on preliminary d…”
Cantor: US EV market share rose from 2% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2023
“The EV share of sale in the U.S. Was about two percent, and that was back in 2019, so about four years ago, if you look at the full four years. In 2020, it was finally starting to show some signs of growth, because in 2021, you had EV share of sales at about f…”
Cantor: US EV sales split 80-20 between BEVs and plug-in hybrids
“But the BEV and PHEV split is 8020 in the US because Tesla has played such a dominant role.”
Cantor: US is second in EV volume behind China; major European markets hit 25-30% share
“Because the U.S. In terms of absolute market Sales was second after China, which is awesome. But if you look at Europe, you're seeing more in that 25% to 30% for UK, Germany, France, the major markets in Europe.”
Cantor: Ford reached about 72,000 EV sales in 2023
“Flash forward to twenty-twenty-three, Ford has about 72,000, you know, EV sales.”
Cantor: Chevy Bolt accounted for ~80% of GM's 76,000 EV sales
“GM's sales overall was about 76,000 units, so actually beating out Ford by a little bit, but around 80% of those vehicle sales were the Chevy Bolt.”
Cantor: GM issued Blazer EV stop-sale over software issues
“GM also had a bunch of software problems with their Blazers, which was their kind of hyped next big vehicle, and they put a stop sale on the Blazer at the end of twenty-twenty-three.”
Cantor: Big Three lack even a quarter of Tesla's EV scale competency
“None of them has really pulled into the same kind of space, or even half or a quarter of the space that Tesla occupies in terms of competency on their kind of scale up of EVs.”
Cantor: Tesla Model Y was the world's top-selling vehicle in 2023
“The Model Y, at least according to Tesla, was the top-selling vehicle in the world last year, bar none at about 1.2 million EVs delivered.”
Cantor: BYD surpassed Tesla in quarterly EV sales in Q4 2023
“BYD hit all their targets last year in terms of sales, and they've surpassed Tesla in terms of fully electric vehicles on a quarterly basis in Q four.”
Cantor: BYD offers nearly 30 models compared to Tesla's two high-volume cars
“So again, they have nearly 30 models available. Tesla has five, but really two.”
Cantor: Hertz EV sell-off was driven by Tesla price cuts hurting resale value
“That being said, a lot of this was a residual value story, and the fact that Musk was reducing, Musk and Tesla was reducing the cost of EVs to be better for consumers is a good thing for them, but for Hertz and some of these kind of fleet customers, if someone…”
Cantor: Hyundai and Kia EV sales grew 60% in 2023 to 120,000 units
“They grew by about 60% year-on-year from 22 to twenty-twenty-three, going from about 73,000 as a group up to about a 120,000 units.”
Cantor: Kia EV9 is first major mass-market three-row EV SUV after Rivian R1S
“One that I'm particularly excited about, and I think the market is as well, is the Kia EV-IX, which is the first major EV outside of the Rivian R-I-S two-bit three-row SUV, kind of reaching out to that family demographic, but The Kia EV-Nine starts at a much l…”
Cantor: Hyundai and Kia's early sub-par EVs gave them vital market expertise
“Hyundai and Kia had EVs in the first generation from about 20 16 to 20 19 that weren't particularly good. The original Ioniq and kind of earlier, kind of Kia EVs were being sold in the U.S. So it gave them time and expertise with the market.”
Cantor: BYD vehicle sales jumped from 400k to 3 million by 2023
“They go from about 400,000 units to about 1.6 million units in 2022. And then last year they hit three million units in 2023.”
Cantor: If legacy OEMs lag by 2026, US attracts Chinese EV makers
“I think if other automakers don't get it together by 26, it becomes very attractive to move in here.”
Cantor: BNEF projects roughly 32% US EV sales growth in 2024
“So we just released our year ahead at the end of December, and we see about 32% growth.”
Cantor: Sub-$36k pricing unlocks half of US new car market
“When you get those EVs below 35,000 dollars or in the 36,000 dollar or less range, you're unlocking about half of the U.S. New passenger car sales market.”
Cantor: US public EV charger installations fell to 27,000 in 2023
“So in twenty-twenty-two, about 41,000 public charging connectors were installed, and last year it was closer to 27,000 new net public charger, public charging connectors were installed.”
Cantor: Only 4% of the $5B federal NEVI EV charging funds have been awarded
“And if you look at the infrastructure law with the five billion dollars as a part of the NEVI program, according to our charging infrastructure team, only four percent of those funds have been awarded to charging infrastructure operators.”