Sep 5, 2024 · 38m · catalyst
The rise of climate adaptation tech
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and Tailwind Climate co-founder Katie MacDonald explore the emerging venture capital landscape for climate adaptation and resilience technologies, examining market taxonomies, commercial catalysts, and the need for standardized measurement frameworks.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 38.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 4.7 Guest teaching 4.0 Guest disagreement 1.0 Shayle pushing back 2.0
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 25:04 Challenging corporate complacency on adaptation timelines
MacDonald contrasts corporate hedging and sluggish 10-year planning horizons against acute commercial losses in real estate and utility infrastructure.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 19:46 Kann presses on venture return timelines and modeling unreliabilityKann directly challenges the viability of adaptation investing by highlighting that climate impacts play out over decades rather than venture fund life cycles.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 36:01 Concrete measurement framework via Turner Construction biometric studyMacDonald educates Kann on operationalized adaptation metrics by citing Turner Construction's empirical biometric pill data and UNEP adaptive capacity frameworks.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 10:01 Kann breaks down the five-and-a-half sectors of decarbonizationKann demonstrates deep sector expertise by detailing his foundational 5.5 sector framework for mitigation before drawing contrasts with adaptation.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host Monologue: The Shift from Mitigation to Adaptation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Host introductory monologue setting up the theoretical and practical tension between climate mitigation and climate adaptation investing. No guest interaction takes place. | |
| Defining Adaptation and Resilience (A&R) Solutions | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kann suggests home batteries as a dual-use mitigation and adaptation technology to probe category boundaries. MacDonald validates the framing and introduces Tailwind's joint taxonomy to prevent over-broad definitions. | |
| Mapping the Eight A&R Sectors and VC Investor Landscape | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Kann maps out his five-and-a-half decarbonization sectors and candidly reflects on accidentally holding adaptation assets. MacDonald details findings from analyzing 150 climate VC portfolios to show lack of deliberate A&R strategy. | |
| Mid-Roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann pushes hard on the venture timeline mismatch and discrepancies across climate risk models. MacDonald responds with data on massive insurance losses and corporate risk disclosures under SB 261. | |
| Water Technology and Lessons from Defense Tech Procurement | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kann proposes defense tech as an investable model for government-procured water and infrastructure technologies. MacDonald enthusiastically builds on the analogy, referencing the DOD Climate Resilience Forum. | |
| Developing Metrics and Measurement Frameworks for Adaptation | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Kann questions whether quantifiable metrics like CO2 equivalent can exist for adaptation. MacDonald breaks down UNEP adaptive capacity tiers and shares concrete case studies from Turner Construction. |
Statements from this episode (10)
Kann: Slower climate mitigation progress forces greater capital shift toward adaptation
“The worse we're doing on mitigation, the more we shift toward adaptation, and of course this is complicated by the fact that oftentimes the investments you might make in the technologies to mitigate climate change may also Have benefits as far as adaptation an…”
MacDonald: Adaptation tech market is severely undercounted due to dual-benefit solutions
“I actually think that if you accounted for all of the incidences of these co-benefit-creating technologies, the numbers in terms of technologies we see today as being adaptation and resilience would be far, far higher than we currently know.”
MacDonald: Only 8 of 150 climate VCs actively invest in resilience
“We looked at a 150 different portfolios within the climate tech VC space. So you could say that's like the large majority of the investors out there. And we found that 19 of those 150 climate tech investors were totally resilience curious. Like they had the wo…”
MacDonald: Only 21% of 6,000+ corporates have climate adaptation plans
“S&P Global did this, like, risky business report on the state of corporate action in this space. They looked at, like, well over 6000 corporates, and out of those 6000 corporates or so, only 21% even had adaptation plans, and within those plans, only 50% were …”
MacDonald: US real estate insurance rates surged 108% in five years
“Like, real estate, for instance, across the country, their insurance rates have risen a 108% over five years.”
MacDonald: PG&E increased wildfire budget by $4.9B from 2021 to 2023
“Utilities, look at, if you look at PG&E, they increase their wildfire budget by 4.9 billion dollars between 2021 and 2023.”
MacDonald: Water tech will remain expensive to scale without stronger buyer demand
“Until we see some really strong signals from buyers that they're willing to fund some of these more advanced systems that move beyond IOT and software and really get into, Large kind of economies of scale type water solutions. You know, I think it's going to b…”
MacDonald: DOD climate procurement will rapidly lower civilian adaptation tech costs
“Like, this is a part of the public sector that's going to rapidly lower the cost of stuff that, like, regular civilians need, and that could extend to stuff like, you know, detection of vector-borne illnesses or other illnesses or biometric sensors that detect…”
MacDonald: Investors will likely adopt engineering firms' climate adaptation risk calculations
“There are a lot of different engineering firms like RWDI and Arup and others that are stepping in to, like, provide some of those calculations that
I think the broader investment space will probably end up using”
MacDonald: The climate adaptation ecosystem needs a Project Drawdown-style framework
“We need to do here, and we're committed to pushing on this at Tailwind, is, like, we need, like, a project drawdown for resilience, or we need, like, we need, like, a speed and scale for resilience.
That's what we need, honestly, because we need, like, the obj…”