May 29, 2025 · 32m · catalyst
How geothermal gets built
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and Zanskar CEO Carl Hoyland examine the mechanics, history, and development lifecycle of geothermal energy, outlining how modern exploration techniques, accelerated permitting, and vast subterranean heat resources are driving a commercial clean firm power resurgence.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 30.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 5.5 Guest disagreement 0.5 Shayle pushing back 1.4
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 29:27 Tempering nationwide expansion timelines
Carl gently pushes back against broader industry hype about nationwide geographic expansion, clarifying that drilling economics will keep development confined to the western third of the continent for decades.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 26:52 Interrogating development timeline bottlenecksShayle challenges the assumption of fast deployment by contextualizing current supply chain and permitting bottlenecks across the energy sector, asking whether geothermal can realistically compress historical 10-year timelines.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:40 The reality of blind geothermal systemsCarl educates Shayle on the geology of hydrothermal systems, demonstrating that visible surface manifestations are rare outliers while the vast majority of resources are hidden underground.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 3:06 Comprehensive geothermal market framingShayle demonstrates deep climate-tech expertise right at the start by synthesizing corporate PPA demand, federal regulatory rhetoric, and legislative headwinds.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition AI Conference 2025 Event Announcement | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Introductory event announcement, show teaser, and corporate sponsor reads featuring Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub. | |
| Introduction: Evaluating the Modern Geothermal Energy Resurgence | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | Shayle lays out a detailed macro thesis on geothermal demand, comparing its historical deployment trajectory to nuclear power. Carl provides a detailed historical overview from the 1960s Geysers development to the multi-decade lull. | |
| Subsurface Thermodynamics, Convection, and Blind Geothermal Systems | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | Carl explains subsurface thermodynamics and convection, revealing that surface hot springs are anomalous outliers and most systems are blind. Shayle probes whether early developers simply got lucky with the Geysers. | |
| Contrasting Conventional Hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal Systems | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | Carl defines the core differences between hydrothermal and EGS before detailing temperature gradient holes. Shayle tests an assumption about inferring deep thermal gradients from shallow shallow drill depths, which Carl validates with nuances regarding groundwater masking. | |
| Mid-Roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | Following the mid-roll ad break, Shayle queries the interpretative difficulty of gradient data and where dry-hole financial risk concentrates. Carl outlines the progression from exploratory slim wells to multi-million-dollar production wells. | |
| Well Pairs, Reservoir Dynamics, and Decline Curve Modeling | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | Carl breaks down the mechanics of thermal decline, reservoir pressure balance, and well-pair spacing. Shayle asks about per-well capacity and the risk of over-extracting from adjacent well pairs. | |
| Topside Plant Infrastructure: Binary Cycles and Direct Heat Applications | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Shayle prompts Carl on surface power generation equipment, district heating, and realistic development timelines in an era of grid delays. Carl details binary cycle turbines and highlights Zanskar's 12-month turnaround at Lightning Dock. | |
| Geographic Scope and the Vast Potential of Domestic Geothermal Power | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Carl notes that commercial geothermal will remain focused on the western third of the US for now, comparing domestic resource potential to the Gulf of Mexico oil basin. Shayle concludes by thanking Carl for the technical deep dive. |
Statements from this episode (12)
Kann: Fervo Energy holds PPAs with utilities and Google for hundreds of MW
“Fervo Energy, notably, has PPAs, both with utilities and with Google, for hundreds of megawatts of new development.”
Hoyland: US geothermal scaled faster than any other renewable in the 1970s-1980s
“Most of the United States growth actually happens in those first one to two decades. And for a while, it looks like geothermal is just going to take off. It's scaling faster than any other renewable at the time. And through the 19 eighties, we had gigawatts of…”
Hoyland: Majority of subterranean geothermal resources are blind with no surface signs
“Most of these convective cells of hot water underground Are not coming to the surface, and we now know that the majority of them are actually what we call blind. There's no hot spring, no volcano, and you wouldn't have even known they existed had you not, in m…”
Hoyland: Unlikely US has another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource
“But at least here in the United States, it's unlikely that there's another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource to be discovered of that type.”
Hoyland: EGS versus conventional geothermal mirrors unconventional versus conventional oil and gas
“In many ways I think is analogous to what you see in oil and gas, the division between conventional oil and gas and unconventional. Is the ability to just drill a well and have what you need versus needing to modify the subsurface in some way.”
Hoyland: Geothermal slim wells cost $1M to $4M at 5,000-6,000 feet
“In this case, you're going to be going to a few thousand feet, maybe as much as five or 6000 feet, and your cost is going to be in the million plus range, so call it one to two million, maybe three or four, depending on the more complex wells to prove that out…”
Hoyland: Early geothermal developers risked $5M–$15M skipping slim wells
“In the early days, they would often skip that intermediate, what I was calling a slim well or more miniature well, and they would go straight to production well. Oh, we've got great temperatures, let's drill into this, and they might drill the five, 10, fiftee…”
Hoyland: Zanskar's new 8,000-foot New Mexico well produces 15 megawatts net
“So we recently actually drilled a new production well down at an operating power plant in New Mexico, and that single well, it's a larger diameter well going to about 8000 feet depth, and it can produce about 15 megawatts net.”
Hoyland: Geothermal projects can realistically reach completion in three to four years
“If you just take it down to the bare bones of you need about one to two years to explore and confirm the resource, and about One and a half to two years to construct that power facility and tie it into the grid. So the ideal scenario would be three to four yea…”
Hoyland: Deploying geothermal in unconventional regions will take decades
“As drilling costs come down, or as demand for clean firm power continues to increase, we see the economic shifting to where you could start to justify new build geothermal using some of these new methods, and even more unconventional locations. We think that t…”