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Jun 5, 2025 · 39m · catalyst

The gas turbine crunch

Tony Brough · 21m spoken Shayle Kann · 10m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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This episode of Catalyst features energy consultant Tony Brough analyzing the severe supply chain bottlenecks, soaring lead times, and multi-year procurement backlogs currently gripping the global gas turbine industry. Host Shail Khan and Brough explore how historic electrical load growth, aerospace competition, and changing power grid dynamics are reshaping equipment manufacturing and project development.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 29.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 4.8 Guest teaching 4.9 Guest disagreement 1.0 Shayle pushing back 1.9
05100:0010:0020:0030:000:45–3:20 · Shayle as informed peer 1/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub The segment comprises sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by Shayle outlining current gas turbine market dynamics and introducing Tony Brough.3:20–8:43 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Historical Market Cycles and the 1998 Enron Bubble Shayle compares current conditions to transformer supply cycles and speculative merchant risk. Tony explains how Enron's artificial demand signals and deregulation triggered the 1998-2001 bust across both IPPs and regulated utilities.8:44–13:13 · Shayle as informed peer 4/10 Turbine Supply Chain Structure and Aerospace Competition Tony provides a structured breakdown of the four supply chain tiers and explains how the massive 40,000-aircraft aerospace backlog directly constrains turbine superalloy and forging capacity.13:14–15:48 · Shayle as informed peer 4/10 Oil and Gas Investment Cycles and Midstream Resilience Shayle asks whether low fuel prices dampen oil and gas turbine orders. Tony clarifies that midstream pipeline operators rely on tolling volumes rather than commodity pricing, preserving steady seven-year capital investment cycles.15:51–21:52 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Data Center Power and Grid Flexibility Following mid-roll advertisements, Shayle cites NextEra capex benchmarks and questions lead time trajectories. Tony tempers extreme price estimates while noting 30-35% inflation driven by raw material producer price indices.21:52–29:50 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Five Market Drivers and Turbine Sizing Segment Analysis Tony walks through five primary market drivers across different turbine sizes. Shayle pushes on whether storage suppresses gas demand, prompting Tony to explain that mid-size peakers benefit from renewable firming while jumbo units face headwinds.29:50–34:31 · Shayle as informed peer 7/10 Data Center Load Growth and OEM Risk Mitigation Shayle demonstrates strong market insight by distinguishing between genuine OEM order backlogs secured by deposits and speculative data center developer proposals, noting that over 1,000 hyperscale projects cannot all materialize.34:32–38:19 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Turbine Efficiency Advances and Hydrogen Co-Firing Viability Tony reviews efficiency improvements pushing past 62% and expresses skepticism regarding hydrogen-ready turbines due to severe fuel supply bottlenecks, a perspective Shayle reinforces.0:45–3:20 · Guest teaching 0/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub The segment comprises sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by Shayle outlining current gas turbine market dynamics and introducing Tony Brough.3:20–8:43 · Guest teaching 6/10 Historical Market Cycles and the 1998 Enron Bubble Shayle compares current conditions to transformer supply cycles and speculative merchant risk. Tony explains how Enron's artificial demand signals and deregulation triggered the 1998-2001 bust across both IPPs and regulated utilities.8:44–13:13 · Guest teaching 7/10 Turbine Supply Chain Structure and Aerospace Competition Tony provides a structured breakdown of the four supply chain tiers and explains how the massive 40,000-aircraft aerospace backlog directly constrains turbine superalloy and forging capacity.13:14–15:48 · Guest teaching 6/10 Oil and Gas Investment Cycles and Midstream Resilience Shayle asks whether low fuel prices dampen oil and gas turbine orders. Tony clarifies that midstream pipeline operators rely on tolling volumes rather than commodity pricing, preserving steady seven-year capital investment cycles.15:51–21:52 · Guest teaching 5/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Data Center Power and Grid Flexibility Following mid-roll advertisements, Shayle cites NextEra capex benchmarks and questions lead time trajectories. Tony tempers extreme price estimates while noting 30-35% inflation driven by raw material producer price indices.21:52–29:50 · Guest teaching 5/10 Five Market Drivers and Turbine Sizing Segment Analysis Tony walks through five primary market drivers across different turbine sizes. Shayle pushes on whether storage suppresses gas demand, prompting Tony to explain that mid-size peakers benefit from renewable firming while jumbo units face headwinds.29:50–34:31 · Guest teaching 4/10 Data Center Load Growth and OEM Risk Mitigation Shayle demonstrates strong market insight by distinguishing between genuine OEM order backlogs secured by deposits and speculative data center developer proposals, noting that over 1,000 hyperscale projects cannot all materialize.34:32–38:19 · Guest teaching 6/10 Turbine Efficiency Advances and Hydrogen Co-Firing Viability Tony reviews efficiency improvements pushing past 62% and expresses skepticism regarding hydrogen-ready turbines due to severe fuel supply bottlenecks, a perspective Shayle reinforces.0:45–3:20 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub The segment comprises sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by Shayle outlining current gas turbine market dynamics and introducing Tony Brough.3:20–8:43 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Historical Market Cycles and the 1998 Enron Bubble Shayle compares current conditions to transformer supply cycles and speculative merchant risk. Tony explains how Enron's artificial demand signals and deregulation triggered the 1998-2001 bust across both IPPs and regulated utilities.8:44–13:13 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Turbine Supply Chain Structure and Aerospace Competition Tony provides a structured breakdown of the four supply chain tiers and explains how the massive 40,000-aircraft aerospace backlog directly constrains turbine superalloy and forging capacity.13:14–15:48 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Oil and Gas Investment Cycles and Midstream Resilience Shayle asks whether low fuel prices dampen oil and gas turbine orders. Tony clarifies that midstream pipeline operators rely on tolling volumes rather than commodity pricing, preserving steady seven-year capital investment cycles.15:51–21:52 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Data Center Power and Grid Flexibility Following mid-roll advertisements, Shayle cites NextEra capex benchmarks and questions lead time trajectories. Tony tempers extreme price estimates while noting 30-35% inflation driven by raw material producer price indices.21:52–29:50 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Five Market Drivers and Turbine Sizing Segment Analysis Tony walks through five primary market drivers across different turbine sizes. Shayle pushes on whether storage suppresses gas demand, prompting Tony to explain that mid-size peakers benefit from renewable firming while jumbo units face headwinds.29:50–34:31 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Data Center Load Growth and OEM Risk Mitigation Shayle demonstrates strong market insight by distinguishing between genuine OEM order backlogs secured by deposits and speculative data center developer proposals, noting that over 1,000 hyperscale projects cannot all materialize.34:32–38:19 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Turbine Efficiency Advances and Hydrogen Co-Firing Viability Tony reviews efficiency improvements pushing past 62% and expresses skepticism regarding hydrogen-ready turbines due to severe fuel supply bottlenecks, a perspective Shayle reinforces.0:45–3:20 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub The segment comprises sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by Shayle outlining current gas turbine market dynamics and introducing Tony Brough.3:20–8:43 · Shayle pushing back 3/10 Historical Market Cycles and the 1998 Enron Bubble Shayle compares current conditions to transformer supply cycles and speculative merchant risk. Tony explains how Enron's artificial demand signals and deregulation triggered the 1998-2001 bust across both IPPs and regulated utilities.8:44–13:13 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Turbine Supply Chain Structure and Aerospace Competition Tony provides a structured breakdown of the four supply chain tiers and explains how the massive 40,000-aircraft aerospace backlog directly constrains turbine superalloy and forging capacity.13:14–15:48 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Oil and Gas Investment Cycles and Midstream Resilience Shayle asks whether low fuel prices dampen oil and gas turbine orders. Tony clarifies that midstream pipeline operators rely on tolling volumes rather than commodity pricing, preserving steady seven-year capital investment cycles.15:51–21:52 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Commercial Sponsorship: Data Center Power and Grid Flexibility Following mid-roll advertisements, Shayle cites NextEra capex benchmarks and questions lead time trajectories. Tony tempers extreme price estimates while noting 30-35% inflation driven by raw material producer price indices.21:52–29:50 · Shayle pushing back 3/10 Five Market Drivers and Turbine Sizing Segment Analysis Tony walks through five primary market drivers across different turbine sizes. Shayle pushes on whether storage suppresses gas demand, prompting Tony to explain that mid-size peakers benefit from renewable firming while jumbo units face headwinds.29:50–34:31 · Shayle pushing back 3/10 Data Center Load Growth and OEM Risk Mitigation Shayle demonstrates strong market insight by distinguishing between genuine OEM order backlogs secured by deposits and speculative data center developer proposals, noting that over 1,000 hyperscale projects cannot all materialize.34:32–38:19 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Turbine Efficiency Advances and Hydrogen Co-Firing Viability Tony reviews efficiency improvements pushing past 62% and expresses skepticism regarding hydrogen-ready turbines due to severe fuel supply bottlenecks, a perspective Shayle reinforces.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 32.6% · guest 67.4%0:00 · Shayle 32.6% · guest 67.4%3:00 · Shayle 42.4% · guest 57.6%3:00 · Shayle 42.4% · guest 57.6%6:00 · Shayle 32.9% · guest 67.1%6:00 · Shayle 32.9% · guest 67.1%9:00 · Shayle 18.9% · guest 81.1%9:00 · Shayle 18.9% · guest 81.1%12:00 · Shayle 18% · guest 82%12:00 · Shayle 18% · guest 82%15:00 · Shayle 3.6% · guest 96.4%15:00 · Shayle 3.6% · guest 96.4%18:00 · Shayle 39.3% · guest 60.7%18:00 · Shayle 39.3% · guest 60.7%21:00 · Shayle 29.1% · guest 70.9%21:00 · Shayle 29.1% · guest 70.9%24:00 · Shayle 24.9% · guest 75.1%24:00 · Shayle 24.9% · guest 75.1%27:00 · Shayle 24.6% · guest 75.4%27:00 · Shayle 24.6% · guest 75.4%30:00 · Shayle 60.9% · guest 39.1%30:00 · Shayle 60.9% · guest 39.1%33:00 · Shayle 24.2% · guest 75.8%33:00 · Shayle 24.2% · guest 75.8%36:00 · Shayle 31.6% · guest 68.4%36:00 · Shayle 31.6% · guest 68.4%39:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 0%39:00 · Shayle 0% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 28:25 Pushback on mobile turbine deployment assumptions

Tony counters Shayle's assumption that mobile units are purely for temporary off-grid or bridge power by pointing out utilities deliberately rotate them across grid-constrained pockets over decade-long horizons.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 32:13 Challenging hyperscale data center development realism

Shayle directly rejects the notion that all 1,000+ announced data center developments will come online, labeling parts of the current frenzy a speculative bubble.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 11:45 Aerospace backlog impact on gas turbine supply chain

Tony explains the shared supplier bottleneck between power generation and commercial aviation, illustrating how 40,000 commercial planes in backlog monopolize raw superalloys and castings.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 31:26 Citing Virginia electric cooperative load doubling data

Shayle demonstrates granular domain knowledge by referencing specific regulatory filings from Virginia co-ops projecting a doubling in electrical load solely from local data center clustering.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub 1000 The segment comprises sponsor advertisements and an introductory monologue by Shayle outlining current gas turbine market dynamics and introducing Tony Brough.
Historical Market Cycles and the 1998 Enron Bubble 5613 Shayle compares current conditions to transformer supply cycles and speculative merchant risk. Tony explains how Enron's artificial demand signals and deregulation triggered the 1998-2001 bust across both IPPs and regulated utilities.
Turbine Supply Chain Structure and Aerospace Competition 4711 Tony provides a structured breakdown of the four supply chain tiers and explains how the massive 40,000-aircraft aerospace backlog directly constrains turbine superalloy and forging capacity.
Oil and Gas Investment Cycles and Midstream Resilience 4612 Shayle asks whether low fuel prices dampen oil and gas turbine orders. Tony clarifies that midstream pipeline operators rely on tolling volumes rather than commodity pricing, preserving steady seven-year capital investment cycles.
Commercial Sponsorship: Data Center Power and Grid Flexibility 5512 Following mid-roll advertisements, Shayle cites NextEra capex benchmarks and questions lead time trajectories. Tony tempers extreme price estimates while noting 30-35% inflation driven by raw material producer price indices.
Five Market Drivers and Turbine Sizing Segment Analysis 6523 Tony walks through five primary market drivers across different turbine sizes. Shayle pushes on whether storage suppresses gas demand, prompting Tony to explain that mid-size peakers benefit from renewable firming while jumbo units face headwinds.
Data Center Load Growth and OEM Risk Mitigation 7413 Shayle demonstrates strong market insight by distinguishing between genuine OEM order backlogs secured by deposits and speculative data center developer proposals, noting that over 1,000 hyperscale projects cannot all materialize.
Turbine Efficiency Advances and Hydrogen Co-Firing Viability 6611 Tony reviews efficiency improvements pushing past 62% and expresses skepticism regarding hydrogen-ready turbines due to severe fuel supply bottlenecks, a perspective Shayle reinforces.

Statements from this episode (11)

Assertion Supported
Kann: Turbine makers Mitsubishi, Siemens, and GE Vernova are sold out
“Between the relaxation of emissions constraints and the rapid load growth that we've discussed innumerable times on this podcast before, perhaps the biggest winners are the companies like Mitsubishi, Siemens, and GE Vernova who make turbines. Of course, one re…”
Shayle Kann Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 2:32
Opinion
Brough: Half of 1998-2001 gas turbine orders were artificial Enron-driven demand
“I would say at least half of the volume was artificial.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 7:17
Assertion Supported
Kann: Data centers and utilities, not merchant generators, drive new gas build
“I don't think there is a lot of new merchant gas being developed. Mostly what's happening is it's other utilities saying we need it for, cause we need more capacity or it's data centers and there'll be the longterm offtake on the project.”
Shayle Kann Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 7:43
Assertion Supported
Brough: Half of global gas turbine orders go to oil and gas
“About half of the gas turbines that's ordered in the marketplace aren't even for the electric power utility market. They're for the oil and gas market.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 9:43
Insight
Brough: Oil and gas companies follow resilient seven-year investment cycles
“Most of the large oil and gas players have long-term thinking in mind. So they're making five, 10, seven, and ten-year strategy developments for strategy. Now, well, in any one year, they might Reduce their order activity because the oil and gas prices are dow…”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 13:52
Assertion Supported
Brough: Gas turbine prices have surged 30% to 35% over five years
“It's, but it's definitely up around 30 to 35% over the last five years. The price is definitely up. I track all of that very, very closely.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 19:03
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brough: Gas turbine lead times will not get much worse
“I actually don't think they're going to get much worse. I think all of the OEMs are, in fact, I know all the OEMs are working like crazy to try and shorten up their lead times, or at least make sure they don't get worse.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 20:45
Assertion Supported
Brough: Average gas turbine procurement lead times now stretch to 48 months
“I would say between 36 and 48 months. I suppose there are some OEMs that are claiming up to 60 months, but I would say on average it's around the 48 month period.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 21:42
Assertion Partly supported
Brough: Roughly 1,400 new data centers are planned across the US
“There's like 1400 New data centers planned in the United States alone. And over a thousand of those are all large scale.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 31:02
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: The US lacks end-user demand for 1,000 new hyperscale data centers
“And I will state categorically, I don't think there will be a thousand new Hyperscale data centers in the United States anytime soon. I don't think there's actually that much demand for it.”
Shayle Kann Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 32:47
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brough: Hydrogen-fueled gas turbines will struggle due to fuel supply constraints
“So while they're all spending a lot of money, and their engineers are working very diligently and doing some fantastic development, I have some doubts as to where, whether the market will actually see a significant Increase in purchases of gas turbines that ac…”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 37:35
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