Jan 15, 2026 · 47m · catalyst
2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode, host Shail Khan and energy analyst Nat Bullard review key data from Bullard's annual decarbonization presentation, exploring global electrification trends, gas turbine supply bottlenecks, the unprecedented tech CapEx boom, and speculative grid queue congestion in Texas.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 34.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Shayle as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 3.1 Guest disagreement 1.8 Shayle pushing back 2.2
speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 37:23 Debate over demand-side interconnection queue speculation
Bullard frames data center developers as merely spreading speculative bets like traditional project siting, but Kann directly counters that speculators are banking land purely for resale arbitrage.
Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 41:26 Kann challenges the validity of TSP load forecastsKann pushes Bullard on whether transmission service providers' astronomical load forecasts represent genuine market projections or simply rent-seeking incentives to expand regulated rate bases.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:41 Bullard clarifies China's coal reserves vs hydrocarbon import dependenceWhen Kann attributes China's electrification drive purely to a lack of domestic hydrocarbons, Bullard corrects him by highlighting China's centuries of sovereign coal reserves and explains how domestic generation provides sovereign energy independence.
Shayle holds their own ▶ 41:53 Kann frames the 500 TWh ERCOT delta against national US consumptionKann rapidly calculates and contextualizes the 500 TWh forecast discrepancy between ERCOT and transmission providers, demonstrating deep market mastery by noting the delta alone exceeds 10% of total US annual electricity demand.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Shayle as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Shayle pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Sponsorship: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The segment consists of sponsor advertisements followed by casual, friendly introductory banter regarding Nat Bullard's annual 200-slide presentation deck. Both host and guest joke about slide counts and prime numbers before beginning the substantive review. | |
| Electrification Trajectories: China's Surge Versus Western Plateau | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Kann notes the surprising stat that China has surpassed the US in electrification share of final energy (30% vs 22%). Bullard nuances Kann's theory about hydrocarbon scarcity by pointing out China's massive sovereign coal reserves and energy independence strategy. | |
| GDP Spending Comparison: Stable Electricity Versus Volatile Oil | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The discussion covers historical spending where electricity expenditure remains range-bound between 3% and 4% of GDP while oil is volatile. Kann proactively tests whether AI demand could break this 50-year trend. | |
| Gas Turbine Supply Bottlenecks and Manufacturing Constraints | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Discussing the massive gas turbine manufacturing bottleneck, Kann cites aeroderivative turbine repurposing and supply constraints. Bullard explains the historical trauma of the 2001 turbine order collapse that keeps manufacturers cautious. | |
| Mid-Roll Commercial: Bloom Energy, Engie, and EnergyHub | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | After mid-roll ads, Bullard reviews Halcyon's regulatory filing data showing combined-cycle plant costs doubling toward $2500/kW. Kann questions whether inflationary EPC costs mean regulatory projections are still underestimating final costs. | |
| Technology CapEx Boom Compared to Historic US Megaprojects | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Examining tech CapEx relative to historical US megaprojects like the Apollo program and Interstate Highway system, Kann adds historical color on how telecom CapEx peaked well after financial markets peaked in 2000. | |
| Unprecedented Growth in the ERCOT Large Load Interconnection Queue | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Bullard compares speculative data center interconnection queues to hospitals selecting sites. Kann pushes back with a sharp distinction, explaining that data center developers and speculators secure land purely to monetize and flip capacity rather than fulfilling localized programmatic needs. | |
| Texas Load Forecast Discrepancy: ERCOT Versus Transmission Providers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Analyzing the 500 TWh forecast gap between ERCOT and Texas transmission service providers, Kann immediately calculates that this single state discrepancy represents over 10% of total annual US electricity demand. | |
| Global Sources of Electricity Demand Growth Through 2030 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Kann expresses skepticism over the IEA's global forecast ranking data centers fifth behind industrial electrification, transport, appliances, and space cooling. Both agree data centers will likely take a larger share in future revisions. |
Statements from this episode (22)
Khan: China is significantly more electrified than the US in final energy share
“China is significantly more electrified, at least as measured by the share of final energy that comes from electricity than the United States. Like, substantially more so.”
Bullard: China's electrified energy share grew from 3% to 30% since 1970
“And it's also moving at a much more rapid pace than either North America or Europe. Which has sort of slowly ticked up over the course of five decades from 10% to a little bit north of 20%. China, meanwhile, has gone since 1970 from, like, three percent to 30%…”
Bullard: China's domestic coal reserves will last for centuries
“It does import coal for kind of energy balance reasons, but it has an absolutely enormous indigenous coal supply that will last for centuries, right?”
Bullard: Global oil expenditures peaked near 9% of GDP after Iranian revolution
“So the year after the second oil shock coming from the Iranian revolution, just under nine percent of per capita GDP expenditures globally were going to oil.”
Bullard: Electricity spending has stayed range-bound between 3% and 4% of GDP
“Electricity, meanwhile, is essentially completely range-bound. The highest it's ever gotten is, like, close to four percent, and the lowest it's ever gotten is three percent.”
Kann: Global electricity spending has historically never exceeded oil spending
“We've never spent more of GDP on electricity than oil historically.”
Bullard: Global gas turbine production capacity caps at 60 gigawatts annually
“The current production limit, and as you know, there's not that many companies that make gas turbines, is somewhere in the range of about 60 gigawatts a year, and we're likely, last year, to be past that by about 20 gigawatts, and to be past that by about 30 g…”
Kann: 2028 gas turbine orders exceed 100 GW against 60 GW capacity
“The order book for twenty-twenty-eight today is over a hundred gigawatts relative to about 60 gigawatts of production capacity”
Bullard: Aeroderivative turbines are not designed for decade-long constant baseload power
“Aero derivatives are traditionally used for very specific applications, and they're not being used necessarily to power things all the time, constantly for a decade straight. They can, but that's just not typically within the design spec.”
Bullard: Planned combined-cycle gas plant capital costs will double by 2030
“You know on the order of, like, more than a 160 active plants, like close to about 80 gigawatts worth of actual capacity, in which the cost of a combined cycle has doubled. Like, twenty-twenty-six deliveries, things that are gonna come online this year, are in…”
Bullard: Simple-cycle gas costs hit $1,500/kW while RICE costs reach $3,000/kW
“Briefly, on the other types of turbans. So, simple cycle, not quite up so much. But up about 50% from like a thousand, about 1500 dollars a kilowatt. And then we start to see reciprocating internal combustion engines as well, or rice turbines. And those are re…”
Bullard: No RICE power installations are currently planned for the 2030s
“The delivery pipeline for those only runs out a couple of years. Like, we don't see anybody planning rice turbines or rice installations in the 20 thirties yet.”
Bullard: Tech CapEx at roughly 2% of GDP exceeds historic megaprojects
“Things like the Manhattan project, electricity, the Apollo project, these are like less than or barely above one half a percent of U.S. GDP at their peak. Even the Apollo project, even the interstate highway project is like six 10th of a percent. Building out …”
Bullard: Tech CapEx has likely not peaked and will rise next year
“This is probably not the peak. Like, most of the estimates based on what companies themselves are saying for their estimated CapEx have a higher number for next year, right?”
Kann: ERCOT large load interconnection queue reached 226 GW by November 2025
“The pipeline of large load interconnection requests in ERCOT in Texas was, what, 40, forty-ish, 42 gigawatts as of January of twenty-twenty-four. So two years ago, it went from forty-ish, 42 gigawatts to 226 gigawatts as of November of 25”
Kann: Total US data center capacity was approximately 30 GW around 2024
“As of what, maybe two years ago, there were about 30 gigawatts of data centers in the U.S. In total.”
Bullard: Texas will not build 226 GW of large load by 2033
“I don't think that Texas is actually going to be building 226 gigawatts of just large load in the coming, let's say, seven to eight years.”
Bullard: Texas 2030 demand forecasts diverge between 1,000 TWh and 1,600 TWh
“ERCOT says, you know what, we could go from, like, a little under 500
Terawatt hours in 2024 to like a thousand by 20 30, right?
So let's call it, you know, up a 110% in that time period.
The transmission service providers on the other hand are like, sorry …”
Bullard: Texas electricity demand will land closer to ERCOT's lower 2030 forecast
“The true number is,
Either somewhere in between or much closer to ERCOT's figure.
I mean, ERCOT has the reason for demand, supply balancing, and upkeep, and everything else to get it really, really accurate in energy terms.
But the transmission service prov…”
Bullard: Industrial electrification will drive 30% of global electricity demand growth
“Globally, electrification of industry is gonna be like 30% of the demand growth for electricity between 24 and twenty-thirty.”