The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%
“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”
Papic: US stock market probably bottomed at 4800
“That's why I think we probably reached the bottom at 4800.”
Papic: There is basically no way the US will not get an Iran deal
“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”
Papic: China's household debt exceeds the US relative to disposable income
“So if you look at household debt as percent of disposable income in China, it's higher than that of the U.S.”
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Papic: Trump and Biden will both maintain elevated fiscal spending
“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”
Papic: US-China yield divergence will favor carry trades in China
“So the yield divergence between US and China is going to favor carry trades in China because they're adopting far less stimulative policies.”
Papic: UK and EU will likely reach a skeleton Brexit deal
“In negotiations, look, I think the odds are that we do get some sort of deal, likely a deal on a skeleton that they will then negotiate through twenty-twenty-one.”
Papic: Russia built FX reserves to $550B and its biggest surplus since 2006
“Russia has built up a massive current account surplus, biggest since 2006. Their FX reserves are five hundred fifty billion. They've rebuilt them since 2014.”
Papic: Polling shows 80% of Russians expected no war with Ukraine
“Only about 25, 30% of Russians would want to be in a single state. And vast majority of Russians, 80%, according to some of the polls I've seen, expected there not to be a war.”
Papic: Institutional allocators hold only ~2% China exposure versus 20-25% global GDP share
“Look, right now, from what we understand at Clocktower, the allocation to China is about two percent. For real money allocators, and it's like 20, 25% of global economy.”
Papic: Fed cut rates 100 bps while yields surged 100 bps
“And we saw a hundred basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, and a hundred basis point moving the yields higher, which hadn't happened since the eighties.”