The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 38 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Khoury: 80% of Pod Hedge Fund Returns Arrive Around Quarterly Earnings
“80% of the returns of these pods are generated on quarterly earnings or the day after quarterly earnings, which means they are looking out for one quarter.”
Khoury: AI Office Vacancies Will Eventually Dwarf AI Tenant Demand
“That space that AI tenants are taking will be dwarfed by the magnitude of vacancy that they create over time.”
Khoury: Sunbelt Apartments Due for Rent Surge as Ratios Hit 19%
“Rent to income in the Sunbelt Has been going lower and lower and lower every year. So once you get back to equilibrium, we're of the view that it's not going to be, oh, we're back at equilibrium. We're going to grow a little bit. You're back with equilibrium. …”
Khoury: Buying Distressed Real Estate and Waiting for Recovery Is Dead
“If real estate went down, you could buy it and just wait, and generally it would come back over time, and that's certainly not true anymore.”
Khoury: REIT Price Movements Are Now Double Long Pond's Early Years
“When we launched the fund, the first three years of the fund's existence versus the last three years of the fund's existence, the average move in the REIT space is literally two X today than it was then.”
Khoury: Hotel REITs are poor businesses because they are price takers
“There are hotel REITs, which in our opinion are not great businesses. They're generally price takers.”
Khoury: REITs Trading at 125% of Net Asset Value Is Now Normal
“If a REIT traded at 125% of NAV, That was Wall Street Journal News. Today, it's the norm.”
Khoury: Better Data Center Investments Are Private, Not Public
“Data centers, they're one place in real estate where the better opportunities are in the private.”
Khoury: Sunbelt Apartment REITs Trade at 25% Discounts to Private Value
“And the Sunbelt apartment REITs, which in aggregate are the largest exposure of the fund today, we're buying these companies at six and a half to seven percent implied cap rates, while the private market is close to five, five and a quarter, in 25, 30% discoun…”
Khoury: Cold Storage REITs Trade at 50 Cents on the Dollar
“Today, the company trades at, we believe, around 12 times free cash flow. Its competitor, AmeriCold, we believe trades a couple turns lower than that. We think good longer term businesses that are probably trading at 50 cents in the dollar to replacement cost …”
Khoury: Six public real estate companies recently sold to private buyers at large premiums
“The output of that is in the last short period of time, we've seen six public processes for sales of real estate companies to the private market, all of which seem to be happening at Large premiums”
Khoury: Niche REIT subsectors have decreased correlation across real estate
“The second thing that's happened is, as the public market has proven to be an efficient place to own and hold assets, more and more sub-sectors have come to the public markets. Data centers, towers, cold storage REITs, single family for rent REITs, gaming REIT…”
Khoury: Hotel Franchises Grow Earnings 15% Annually While Hotel REITs Stagnate
“These business models, you've got RevPar, you've got net unit growth, then with a little bit of operating and financial leverage and share repurchase, you're growing earnings, 15% a year, compared to the hotel REITs basically growing, not at all, or in some ca…”
Khoury: Cash-Generative Share Cannibals Become Cheaper If Their Stock Stays Flat
“In the best instances, these are companies that are generating material amounts of free cash flow and shrinking the float so that as time passes, if the stock's flat, it's getting better and it's getting cheaper.”
Khoury: Market Panics Indiscriminately Depress Good and Bad Cyclical Stocks
“Cyclical securities got hammered across the board, good and bad ones. Our experience is often, they all go down at a similar level in those periods of time, so you get a chance to buy the really good ones at great prices.”
Khoury: Passive Capital Inflates REITs Paying Unsustainable Dividends
“If you've got a significant amount of passive capital, which the REIT market now does, and a passive capital doesn't really care about anything, oftentimes securities can trade at levels that are higher than they otherwise would be because they're paying divid…”
Khoury: Long Pond sizes top long positions up to 12%
“We run with 12% positions. We don't do it all the time. It's reserved for special situations.”
Khoury: Jury Is Out on Terminal Value of Data Center Assets
“The jury is out on what terminal value of these assets will be.”
Khoury: New Supply Starts for Sunbelt Apartments Dropped 60% to 70%
“So the output of that is in these secularly winning real estate asset classes, Sunbelt departments, industrial, and self-storage, that supply starts are down, depending on market subsectors, 60, 70%.”
Khoury: Office buildings consume 25% to 30% of income in capex
“25, 30% of the income from an office building is going into repairs, maintenance, capital expenditures on a recurring basis.”
Khoury: Institutional Investors Will Adopt Actively Managed ETFs
“Our view is that institutional investors will adopt actively managed ETFs.”
Khoury: Real Estate Is the Only S&P Sector Down Since 2022
“You're talking to somebody who's investing in the only GIC sector in the S&P that's still materially down since 22. The GIC and REITs is down almost 20%, while the S&P is up 40. We've now, since the beginning of 22, underperformed the S&P by 60%. I believe the…”
Khoury: 90% of US Real Estate Is Privately Owned
“90% of real estate in this country is owned outside of the public market. So you've got 10% of the market that trades publicly.”
Khoury: Long Pond Evaluates Investments on Two-Year IRR Paradigm
“We look at everything through a two-year IRR paradigm.”
Khoury: Pod shops have grown 4x since Long Pond's founding
“And the pods have grown four X since Long Pond has existed.”
Khoury: REITs total under $1.5T; Long Pond tracks 325 companies
“REITs are just under a trillion and a half, and the non-REIT side is actually larger than that. The companies are generally much bigger. In aggregate, we cover about 325 companies in our coverage model.”
Khoury: Long Pond Rotated Into Hard-Hit Compounders Like Hyatt
“In the case of Liberation Day, A lot of what we did was sell stocks that were down a little to buy stocks that were down a lot that had these compounding characteristics like Hyatt.”
Khoury: Long Pond maintains 30 longs and 30 shorts portfolio structure
“30 longs by 30 shorts, with the longs almost always being larger.”
Khoury: A 3% position is a large short at Long Pond
“For us, a short being a three percent position is a big position for us.”
Khoury: Real estate deliveries reflect capital markets from three years ago
“Real estate deliveries are never reflective of current capital markets. They're reflective of capital markets from three years ago.”
Khoury: Long Pond holds no long exposure to office real estate
“We don't really have exposure today in the long side.”
Khoury: Hilton Cash Flow Quadrupled While Park Hotels Declined Post-Spinoff
“Interestingly, both of those companies did two dollars and 19 cents in free cash flow in 2017. This year, Hilton is going to do over nine dollars in free cash flow. Park Hotels is going to do less than the two 19 they did in 2017. Over that time period, Hilton…”
Khoury: Hyatt Shifted from 70% Owned Real Estate to 80% Management Fees
“Hyatt, when they came public, they owned 70% real estate and generated 30% of their income from management franchise. Today, it's 80% management franchise and 20% owned and leased.”
Khoury: Equity LifeStyle grew earnings through every modern recession
“This is a business that's grown earnings in 99, 2002 1001, 2007, 2008. You name the year, it's grown earnings. And their business is simple, but incredibly safe. They own the land underneath manufactured homes. They don't actually own the homes. It's an incred…”
Long Pond's Active ETF Holds 20 to 25 Cheapest Among 80 Target Real Estate Firms
“What we've done is we've taken the data that we have over the last 15 years of analyzing these companies, and we've said, there are 80 high-quality real estate companies. These are secular winners, compounders like Hilton. That will be the investable universe …”
Long Pond's ETF Has About 50% Overlap with Hedge Fund Long Book
“It's about a 50% overlap at any given point in time.”
Khoury: In 1999 REITs Traded at 20–25% Discounts to Private Value
“REITs were the antithesis of what anybody wanted to own. So the most impactful thing that I learned at Lazard, having been the grunt guy, running all the models in advance of the CEOs coming in to complain to my managing director why their stocks all traded at…”