The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hunt: Financial Markets Are Entirely Driven By Narratives Over Fundamentals
“I am today a strong form narrativist. I think it's all stories all the way down, and that includes the stories we tell ourselves about value, about growth.”
Hunt: Private Credit Reinsurance Structures Recreate Pre-2008 Citigroup SIV Risks
“My strong belief is that we've shifted around a lot of risk into the insurance, particularly the offshore reinsurance world, where leverage ratio is incredibly high, increasingly invested with affiliates. And we all know what that means, but it's, the reason I…”
Hunt: The Ability To Sell Stories Defines Successful CEOs Today
“This is narrative creation. This is what makes for a successful CEO today, Ted, is the ability to create and sell a story.”
Hunt: Iran-Israel Conflict Will Likely Escalate Beyond 'Phony War' Stage
“There is a hot war between those two countries. It is in its phony war stage. I don't think it remains in a phony war stage, or I think the risk is that it doesn't”
Hunt: Core Math Behind Narrative NLP Has Not Changed In 35 Years
“Nothing's changed in the math. It's the same algorithms, it's the same network math that I was using 35 years ago. What has changed is big data, so the access to all this information, all this text information.”
Hunt: Econometric 'Epsilon' Represents Human Narratives, Not Pure Error
“The fact is, epsilon is just what's not in your econometric formula. It's not error. It's what you don't know. Yes, there is error and stochastic stuff in there, right? But there's also human interaction. Strategic interaction. There's also how humans systemat…”
Hunt: Quantitative Market Inference Must Start Top-Down, Not Bottom-Up
“You've got to start from the top down. It has to come from, this is the way I think the world works. And then you use inference as a tool to test your hypothesis and actually find ways to apply it. It can't be the other way around.”
Hunt: State Editorials Show Detectable Narrative Patterns Before Going To War
“My idea was that before a government would do something risky, start a war, start fighting with another country, they're going to tell efforts to tell a story to their people. So the idea was that by looking at domestic media, in particular, editorials, which …”
Hunt: Managing Client Capital Is Not The Time To Figure Things Out
“If you're responsible for other people's money, you say what you do, and then you do what you say. Managing other people's money is not the time to figure something out.”
Hunt: Tracking Market Narratives Uses The Exact Same Math As Epidemiology
“And you can track the density of that language and the way it spreads virus-like. It's the same math that you use to track viruses. It's the same math that you'll use to track the words and their density across all the words that are being published and spoken…”
Hunt: Large Organizations Lack Loyalty, Making Constant External Networking Critical
“If you're in a big organization, you always need to be looking for your next job. And I don't mean that in the sense of you've got your resume out there and you're, you've got one foot out the door. What I mean by that is you're in a transactional relationship…”
Hunt Returned Client Capital In 2012 After Value Investing Stopped Working
“So in 2012, and this was, I'm pretty sure my wife still hasn't forgiven me for this, but we gave all the money back to our clients.”
Hunt: Always Attend Funerals Because Showing Up Builds Deep Goodwill
“Friend of mine in Houston. Amazing advice. Always go to the funeral. Always go to the funeral. It's difficult. It can be hard. It can be time consuming. And it's not that if you don't go, it's not that you'll be missed. It's not that the group there will say, …”