The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

What-if
Mahr: LTCM Would Not Have Failed Without 50x Leverage
“If long-term capital management hadn't been running a fifty-x leveraged strategy, They wouldn't have ended up in the trouble that they ended up with.”
Daniel Mahr Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 37:45 Daniel Mahr – Glass Box Quant at MDT Advisers (EP.472)
Assertion Supported
IG credit spreads are at their tightest levels since the late 1990s
“Spreads are super tight. They're tighter now than they were before the GFC in the investment grade world, which is mind blowing. Spreads tightened the tightest level since pre-long-term capital management in the late nineties.”
Jeff Aronson Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 39:14 Jeff Aronson – Building Centerbridge Across the Capital Structure (EP.468)
Opinion
Bessent: LTCM's 1998 collapse was relative value gone amok, not macro
“Long-term capital had blown up in 1998, And that wasn't really macro, it was more RV gone amok.”
Scott Bessent Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 32:15 Scott Bessent - Macro Maven (EP.415)
Insight
Market crises can wipe out investors before mean reversion occurs
“When things go bad, they can go much worse than you expected. And things can really happen that, that don't make sense. And it doesn't matter if it makes sense or not, because you're not around to take advantage of the other side.”
Andrew Tsai Oct 22, 2018 ▶ 15:56 Andrew Tsai – Catching a Theme on the Chalkstream (EP.73)
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 700 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.